Update: Recession Ending Plays
Investors are hopeful that the jobs number released Friday morning signals the recession is near its end. The latest data showed 345,000 jobs were lost last month, the smallest since September and far less than forecast.
However, don’t expect a smooth ride. The unemployment rate raced to 9.4 percent -- the highest since July 1983.
How should you be trading?
I’m looking a forest products which are highly correlated to an economic recovery, says Terranova. I think you can trade it with Weyerhauser which could go to $50 in the next 6 months if the recession eases.
I think the global auto trade is an end-of recession trade, adds Tim Seymour. I think a lot of the European automakers have not priced in recovery.
I like the homebuilders , says Karen Finerman, as well as some of the staffing companies.
I’m keeping an eye on Hewlett-Packard, says Guy Adami. They have cash on the balance sheet and their valuations look fair. If the recession eases we should see tech spending return.
I’d look Amazon, Netflix and Priceline , says Karabell, because so far they have not participated in the rally and they should win as the consumer gets stronger.
I'd check out the DBA, adds Jared Levy. I think you can play the recovery with ag. But I would not buy until we have a retracement.
If we do recover I think the retail stocks will be great beneficiaries, adds JJ Kinahan of ThinkOrSwim. I’d look at Target or the XRT
Options investors are buying near-term upside calls, explains Brian Stutland of Stutland Equities. That suggests to me they’re betting the S&P goes to 1000.
As a result, I think it’s a good time to get into high yielding dividend stocks such as AT&T, Plum Creek and Archer Daniels Midland .
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Trader disclosure: On June 5th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (C), (GS), (MSFT), (NUE), (BTU); Finerman's Firm Owns (PBR), (PM), (TBT); Finerman's Firm Is Short (IJR), (MDY), (SPY), (IWM), (USO), (XRT); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (BAC) Preferred Shares And Are Short (BAC); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (WFC) Preferred Shares, Finerman's Firm Is Short (WFC); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (FLS); Finerman's Firm Owns (MSFT), (RSH), (FLIR), (CSCO), (NOK); Seymour Owns (AAPL), (BAC), (F); Terranova Owns (TER), (ABT), (XBI);
Terranova Owns (BTU) And Is Short (BTU) Calls; Terranova Owns (RIMM) And Is Short (RIMM) Calls; Terranova Owns (GENZ) And Is Short (GENZ) Calls ; Terranova Owns (X) And Is Short (X) Calls; Terranova Owns (MS) And Is Short (M)S Calls; Terranova Owns (JPM) And Is Short (JPM) Calls; Terranova Owns (POT) And Is Short (POT) Calls; Terranova Owns (BRCM) And Is Short (BRCM) Calls; Terranova Owns (HES) And Is Short (HES) Calls ; Terranova Owns (IBM) And Is Short (IBM) Calls; Terranova Is Short (XOM) Call Spreads ; Terranova Owns (DIS) Call Spreads; Terranova Is Short (FCX) And (FCX) Puts
Terranova Works For (VRTS); Terranova Is Chief Alternatives Strategist Of Virtus Investment Partners, Ltd.; Terranova Is Co-Portfolio Manager Of The Virtus Diversifier PHOLIO; Virtus Diversifier PHOLIO Owns (IGE), (DBC), (DBV)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (ABD), (CAL), (CLB), (DLR), (EPR), (EXR), (IGE), (MEE), (DBC), (DBV), (DBA), (SKT), (UA), (WBMD); Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of St Mary Land & Exploration Co; Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of Seagate Tax Refund Rights
For Brian Stutland:
Stutland Has A Long Stock & Options Position In (GLD)
Stutland's Firm Has A Short Volatility Position In VIX And SPX Options
Stutland Owns (T)
Stutland Owns (IBM) And Is Short (IBM) Calls
Stutland Owns (PCL)