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In the final minutes of trade stocks inched higher putting the Dow [.DJIA
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] in positive territory for the year for the first time since early January. However the boost came largely from defensive names such as Procter & Gamble [PG
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].
Defensive plays are stocks of companies that tend to weather a recession better than most because their products -- such as food or toothpaste or drugs -- are things that people buy, even if they cut spending in other areas.
With the S&P 500 [.SPX
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] now up 39.8% since the March lows, the move higher may have been ignited by investors speculating that a pullback is in the offing.
How should you be positioned?
Strategy Session with the Fast Money traders
I know everyone wants to be bullish, says Guy Adami, but the market internals tell me the next move is lower. In the short-term stocks have come too far too fast.
It seems to me that energy and resources are stalling, adds Joe Terranova. I think the market rolls heading into the Federal Reserve meeting on June 23rd.
We might roll over, muses Pete Najarian. But there are investors on the sidelines who are worried they’ve missed the rally and if that money comes into the market it could send us even higher.
My clients are covering the short positions, explains Steve Grasso. I’ve had screaming bears covering short positions and that says to me that the next move is higher.
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OIL PULLS BACK AFTER BIG WEEK
Oil [US@CL.1
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] fell on Friday, dragged down from eight-month highs as traders booked profits after a three-day rally. U.S. crude fell 64 cents to settle at $72.04 a barrel.
"The petroleum markets are seeing at least a light round of profit-taking, encouraged by an upturn in the U.S. dollar," explains Tim Evans, energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York.
A stronger dollar can weaken commodity markets by cutting into the purchasing power of buyers using other currencies
What’s the commodities play now?
I think crude is a little toppy here and I’d take profits in stocks levered to oil, counsels Steve Grasso.
I also think we’ve likely seen the top in oil, speculates strategic investor Dennis Gartman. I would probably go from a bullish position to a neutral position.
Right now oil is not going up on fundamentals, explains Joe Terranova, it’s going up on the demand for the paper asset. It seems to me that momentum could create a bubble.
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MONSTER BANK RALLY FROM MARCH LOSING MOMENTUM
Investors are looking for positive catalysts to take bank stocks [XLF
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] higher. The sector is up more than 50% since the March lows but now appears somewhat stalled with some investors fearing a correction may be near.
Meanwhile, Bank of America -Merrill Lynch Research said repayment of federal funds by Goldman Sachs [GS
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], JPMorgan [JPM
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] and Morgan Stanley [MS
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] will force a reversal of value for the remaining warrants – and as a result -- they cut second-quarter profit estimates.
Company Name New Estimate Old Estimate
Goldman Sachs $2.92 $3.59
Morgan Stanley $0.23 $0.70
JPMorgan $0.01 $0.30
In the space I’d be careful, counsels Jeff Macke. These stocks are tired and need a rest.
I’m watching Jeffries [JEF
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], adds Guy Adami. I think it’s a buy on a dip.
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FINK THE NEW KING OF WALL STREET?
BlackRock [BLK
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] said on Thursday it will buy British bank Barclays [BCS
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] investment arm BGI for $13.5 billion in a blockbuster deal that will create the world's biggest asset manager.
For BlackRock, a 21-year old company which relied heavily on acquisitions to grow from a one-room bond investment firm into the largest publicly traded U.S. money manager, the deal will more than double assets to roughly $2.7 trillion.
It will also give New York-based BlackRock, well-known for working with governments and institutional clients, access to retail investors and the hugely popular exchange traded funds San Francisco-based Barclays Global Investors offers.
What’s the trade?
I think valuations are rich but it seems like momentum will take BlackRock higher, says Guy Adami.
Conversely I think Barclay’s could go even lower, muses Pete Najarian.
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OPTIONS ACTION: TIVO
Pete Najarian has spotted unusual options activity in TiVo [TIVO
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The call volume in this stock suggests to me TiVo could move higher, explains the Pit Boss.
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Trader disclosure: On June 12th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Macke Owns (AGU), (USO), (BAC); Najarian Owns (FCX) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (MCD) Calls; Najarian Owns (RCL) Calls; Adami Owns (AGU), (BTU), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE), (BTU); Terranova Owns (TER), (XBI), (SDS), (BTU), (RIMM); Terranova Owns (X) And Is Short (X) Calls; Terranova Owns (MS) And Is Short (MS) Calls; Terranova Owns (JPM) And Is Short (JPM) Calls; Terranova Owns (POT) And Is Short (POT) Calls; Terranova Owns (BRCM) And Is Short (BRCM) Calls; Terranova Owns (IBM) And Is Short (IBM) Calls; Terranova Owns (HES) And Is Short (HES) Calls; Terranova Owns (GENZ) And Is Short (GENZ) Calls; Terranova Is Short (OIH); Terranova Is Short (RIG); Terranova Is Short (XOM) Call Spreads; Terranova Owns (DIS) Call Spreads; Terranova Is Short Aug. Nymex Crude Oil; Terranova Is Short September Nymex Crude Oil; Terranova Is Short December Nymex Crude Oil; Terranova Owns December 2011 Nymex Crude Oil; Terranova Is Short August Gold Futures; Terranova Is Short July Natural Gas Futures
Terranova Works For (VRTS); Terranova Is Chief Alternatives Strategist Of Virtus Investment Partners, Ltd.; Terranova Is Co-Portfolio Manager Of The Virtus Diversifier PHOLIO; Virtus Diversifier PHOLIO Owns (IGE), (DBC), (DBV); Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (ABD), (CAL), (CLB), (DLR), (EPR), (EXR), (IGE), (MEE), (DBC), (DBV), (DBA), (SKT), (UA), (WBMD); Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of St Mary Land & Exploration Co; Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of Seagate Tax Refund Rights
For Steve Grasso
Grasso Owns (OXY)
Stuart Frankel Clients Own (SU)
Stuart Frankel Clients Own (PBR)
Stuart Frankel Clients Own (HES)
Stuart Frankel Clients Own (OXY)
For Dennis Gartman
Gartman And CIBC Gartman Index Own (DE)
Gartman And CIBC Gartman Index Own (AA)
Gartman And CIBC Gartman Index Own (FCX)
Gartman And CIBC Gartman Index Own (BX)
Gartman And CIBC Gartman Index Own (SDS)
Gartman And CIBC Gartman Index Are Short (BRK.B)
Gartman And CIBC Gartman Index Are Short S&P And NASDAQ Futures
Gartman And CIBC Gartman Index Own (PBR), (SU)
Gartman And CIBC Gartman Index Are Short (CVX), (XOM)
CNBC.com with wires
Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes