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Pros Say: ‘W-Shaped’ Recovery Likely

Published: Monday, 15 Jun 2009 | 6:08 PM ET

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By: JeeYeon Park
CNBC News Associate

Stocks logged their worst day in a month on Monday as a key manufacturing gauge came in weaker than expected and the dollar made a comeback.The NY Empire Manufacturing Index fell in May, indicating difficult times in the sector and presenting a headwind for economic growth. In the meantime, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the financial system was beginning to thaw but that the economic recovery would be slower than usual and that unemployment would likely continue to rise. Read and listen to what the experts had to say…

‘W-Shaped’ Recovery Likely

Stimulus isn't doing enough to stave off another economic dip, said Ron Insana of SAC Capital. He said the G8’s plan to roll back the stimulus is a bad idea. By letting the economy stand too soon, we can slide very easily back, especially when banks are still in trouble and credit card defaults and delinquencies are still rising. He predicted a W-shaped recovery.

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Counterpoint: Recovery Won’t Be W Or V

The rebound will not dip down again in a “W-shape,” but at the same time it won’t exactly be a “V-shaped” turnaround either, said John Hermann of Hermann Forecasting. The consumer is more resilient than expected and the stimulus will offset the possible economic slump, he said.

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Dollar Not Linked to Downslide

Michael Farr of Farr, Miller & Washington said the downward market movements are unrelated to the dollar. “We’ve seen markets go up for a long time and the pullback seems very reasonable,” he said. “The looming question is what are we going to do with this deficit? That is the fear that’s taking [interest] rates higher.”

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The Fed a ‘Reluctant Regulator’

Christian Weller of the Center for American Progress said the proposed regulatory changes are “revolutionary,” but do not go far enough. He said he is concerned about the Fed’s role as it “has been a reluctant regulator.”

Markets Set for Another Pullback

The move to the upside over the last week or so has been caused more by a lack of selling pressure, said Dodge Dorland, CIO of Landor Capital Management. “If selling pressure comes back into the market, the demand for buying stocks now is rather weak relative to what it's been, and so we're setup for a pullback," he said.

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Markets Are Still Contracting

The economy has averted a depression, but it is still shrinking and the stock market has got carried away with all these green shoot discussions, said Juerg Zingg of Q Investments. “There’s nothing like a rebound here — markets have taken too much optimism as a result we expect market correction,” he said.

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Investors Too Nervous to do Anything

According to Barclays Wealth and The Economist Intelligence Unit's latest report, high net-worth investors across the globe say they are seeing significant investment opportunities in the current markets, but most are still too nervous to take the plunge.

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Airline Industry to Recover in 2010

"I'm very much a believer in the long-term positive dynamics for the aviation industry," said Dave Cote of Honeywell.

Scott Carson of Boeing Commercial Airplanes said "it feels like we've seen the bottom of the freight market. It feels like we're bouncing off the bottom of the passenger market." Both Cote and Carson said that the industry could recover in 2010.

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Obama’s Health Care Plan ‘Totally Unrealistic’

David Walker of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation says escalating health care costs represent the single largest driver of the country’s debt. He criticized Obama’s current health care reform proposals. “[Obama’s] pledge to not raise taxes on people who are making less than $250,000 was totally unrealistic…We need toward move to universal coverage, but we need to focus on basic and essential coverage,” he said.