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Swan Song: Why Nassim Taleb is Still Wrong
Topics:Recession | Crash of '87 | Hedge Funds | Wall Street
Companies:American International Group Inc
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One issue in investing that Taleb spends some time on in his book Fooled By Randomness is "survivorship bias." It's well known that fund managers as a group look much better than they should because the least successful ones go out of business. As Taleb points out, we notice the ones who do well a lot more because those who do badly simply drop out of sight. So it is also with predictions of disaster: We mostly get to hear about the few times that they turn out to be right.
© 2012 Slate.com
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