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Correction On The Horizon?

Wednesday, 17 Jun 2009 | 5:44 PM ET

If you’re a bull, we might be rapidly approaching your exit. Powerful indicators suggest a correction is coming.

The first indicator we’re looking at is FedEx earnings. Many investors consider this stock a fundamental ‘tell’ because it reveals the pulse of business activity as measured through shipping.

And on Wednesday, FedEx said they lost more money in the last quarter as consumers and businesses downsized shipments. And to make matters worse, the company also gave a low outlook citing the weak economy and rising fuel prices.

Not terribly promising. “This is very disappointing for the economy,” muses Tim Seymour.

Then there’s the technical side of the argument which isn't terrilby bullish either.

Specifically, we're talking about the Dow Theory, which essentially contends that for an upward trend to continue, both the Dow Jones Industrial Averageand the Dow Transportation Average must advance above a previous important high, in tandem.

That’s not happening.

According to John Kosar of Asbury Research although the DJIA took out its May highs the Transports has not. “That’s a red flag. Something is not right. Often this kind of pattern signals a pullback,” he said on Fast Money's Halftime Report.

Is a correction on the horizon?

Kosar thinks it is. And he’s not alone. So does Fast Money trader Guy Adami.

“It seems to me a lot of investors have become complacent expecting the market will continue to go higher. But I don’t believe it," says Adami. "The path of least resistance is down. We traded up to the 200-day moving average in the S&P 500 and failed a couple times.”

OptionMonster Jon Najarian concurs. "I’m looking for a 5%-10% correction," he reveals.

Like we said this may be your exit. Or if you're going to stay on this ride -- buckle up!

Signs of More Trouble Ahead?
Assessing whether transports are signaling more trouble for the economy, with the Fast Money crew.



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Trader disclosure: On June 17th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (C), (GS), (BTU), (AGU), (INTC), (MSFT), NUE); Najarian Owns (V), (CSCO); Najarian Owns (C) Preferred; Najarian Is Short (POT) Puts; Najarian Is Short (WFC); Seymour Owns (AAPL), (BAC), (BX), (EEM), (FXI), (F), (IYT); Terranova Owns (SDS), (XBI), (TER), (BTU), (ABT), MSFT); Terranova Is Short (XOM) Call Spread; Terranova Is Short (GENZ) Call Spread; Terranova Is Short (OIH)& (OIH) Puts; Terranova Is Short (RIG)& (RIG) Puts; Terranova Is Short (FCX)& (FCX) Puts; Terranova Is Short (RIMM)& (RIMM) Puts; Terranova Is Short (GENZ)& (GENZ) Puts; Terranova Is Short (IBM) Calls; Terranova OWns (BRCM) & Is Short (BRCM) Calls; Terranova Owns (POT)& Short (POT) Calls; Terranova Is Short (JPM)& Is Short (JPM) Calls; Terranova Owns (MS) & Short (MS) Calls; Teranova Owns (X) & Is SHort (X) Calls; Terranova OWns July Nat Gas Futures; Terranova Owns (DIS) Octovber Call Spread

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DJIA
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TRAN
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FDX
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