Halftime Report: Are Stocks Oversold Or Overbought?
S&P 500 NOW DOWN FOR YEAR
Both the Dow and S&P 500 had slipped on Monday as investors questioned whether stocks were overbought after the World Bank said prospects for global growth remain "unusually uncertain." However, around lunchtime the sell-off had pushed the S&P back into negative territory for the year leading other to wonder if stocks were oversold?
How should you be positioned?
Instant Insights from the Fast Money Traders
Investors are taking defensive posturing with options, explains Mike Khow of Cantor Fitzgerald. Lately, I’m seeing investors buying downside puts for protection and selling upside calls to collect a premium. However I’m not sure I agree with that trade. Personally, I’m a buyer of stocks when they pull back as they’re doing now.
It seems to me now that expirations have expired, investors are scrambling, muses OptionMonster Jon Najarian. However I believe there’s still enough protection in place to keep the correction minor. With that said, for the near term I expect the broad market to go lower.
I’m seeing rotation into defensive sectors such as healthcareutilities and consumer staples, adds Katie Stockton of MKM. But I don’t think this is the day to sell. The market appears oversold in the short-term so right now I’m looking for an oversold bounce.
It seems to me there is no sector rotation left, adds Fast Money trader Joe Terranova. We’ve rotated through them all and as far as I’m concerned there’s nothing left. I’m a seller of stocks.
GOLD FALLS OVER $15
Gold hit its lowest level since mid May on Monday, breaking below $920 an ounce as the dollar strengthened ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting.
Mid-day spot gold had slipped to $917.90 but later recovered some of those losses.
I see an inverse head and shoulders formation in the charts, reveals Katie Stockton. That’s a bullish sign. Gold should have support down at its 200-day moving average and that’s where I’d be an aggressive buyer of gold.
It seems that the financials are struggling with a key technical level and can’t break through the all important 200-day moving average.
How should you trade?
In the space, I like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan , reveals Joe Terranova. As far as I’m concerned they’re best in class.
I agree with Joe, adds Mike Khow. I like the marquis names in this space.
OIL ROLLING OVER
Oil prices fell nearly 4 percent to below $67 a barrel on Monday on a stronger dollar and concerns that the global economy may not be as strong as previously believed.
For the first time since the end of April, we’re below crude’s 20-day moving average, reveals Addison Armstrong of Tradition Energy. I think oil slips down to $66 and if we break below that it could slide to $63.50 in a hurry.
What’s the trade?
I’m double short oil, reveals Jon Najarian, and I'm playing it with the PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short ETN.
I would not short energy heading into the Fed meeting, counters Joe Terranova.
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Trader disclosure: On June 22nd, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE), (BTU); Seymour Owns (BAC), (BX), (EEM), (FCX), (FITB); Finerman Owns (TBT); Finerman's Firm Owns (FL), (MSFT), (PBR), (RIG), (NOK), (TBT); Finerman's Firm Owns (WFC) Preferred, (BAC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Is Short (BAC), (WFC), (IJR), (MDY), (IWM), (SPY), (USO); Finerman's Firm Owns (WMT); Finerman's Firm Is Short (XRT); Terranova Owns (SDS), (TER), (XBI), (BTU), (ABT), (MSFT), (HES), (BTU); Terranova Is Short (XOM) Call Spreads; Terranova Is Short (OIH) And (OIH) Puts; Terranova Is Short (RIG) And (RIG) Puts; Terranova Is Short (FCX) And Is Short (FCX) Puts; Terranova Is Short (IBM); Terranova Is Short (GENZ) Call Spreads; Terranova Owns (GENZ) And Is Short (GENZ) Calls; Terranova Owns (X) And Is Short (X) Calls; Terranova Owns (MS) And Is Short (MS) Calls; Terranova Owns (DIS) Call Spreads; Terranova Owns (BRCM) And Is Short (BRCM) Calls; Terranova Is Short (IBM) Calls; Terranova Owns (RIMM) And Is Short (RIMM) Calls; Terranova Is Short August Gold Futures; Terranova Is Short August Crude Oil Futures; Terranova Is Short September Crude Oil Futures; Terranova Is Short December 2009 Crude Oil Futures; Terranova Owns December 2009 Crude Oil Futures; Terranova Is Short December 2011 Crude Oil Futures
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