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If you’re a bull who’s waiting for the next leg higher you might be relieved by Thursday’s market action.
Not only did the Dow [.DJIA
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] record triple digit gains but the Vix [VIX
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] is down and the latest string of Treasury auctions were received rather well.
All that seems rather supportive of the bull case.
But storm clouds may lie ahead. Technical analyst John Roque has spotted some ominous patterns in the charts.
Specifically he’s looking at an amalgamation of Monsanto (MON), Mosaic (MOS), Freeport McMoRan(FCX), Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS) & Copper – something he calls his bellwether index.
There are four commodity stocks in Roque's index because "if there is going to be leadership it should come out of the basic materials sector," Roque explains. "And we also chose two financials because we think Morgan and Goldman will be leaders in a financial revival," he adds.
In other words Roque considers these securities ‘tells’ for the economy.
Now here's the bad part. Roque says this index peaked a month ago and has deteriorated ever since. And the trend lines suggest further weakness.
The biggest trouble makers are Monsanto and Mosaic, he explains. "They've been really weakening of late."
For more of Roque's analysis including a look at the charts he uses, please watch the video!
- HALFTIME REPORT: How to Trade Senator Dodd's Financial Reforms
- Your First Move For Tuesday November 9th
- Web Extra: The Dow's Only Loser
- Pops & Drops: Altria, Potash...
- Tech: The Trade of the Year?
- A Revitalized Credit Card Industry?
- Pure Plays For a Weak US Dollar
- Halftime Report: Retail - The Next Sector to Pop
- BEHIND THE MONEY: 'The Onion' as Trading Indicator
- Web Extra: The Final Trade
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Trader disclosure: On June 25th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE), (BTU); Najarian Owns (LM) Call Spread;’ Najarian Owns (PALM) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (YHOO) Call Spread; Finerman's Firm Owns (MSFT); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (FLS), (RIG); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (BAC) Preferred Shares; Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (WFC) Preferred Shares, Finerman's Firm Is Short (WFC); Finerman's Firm Is Short (IWM), (IYR), (IJR), (MDY), (SPY), (USO); Seymour Owns (AAPL), (BAC); Seygem Asset Management Owns (FCX), (MOS)
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