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Cramer: Wall Street's Outlook 'Too Bullish'

Market research predicting a big turn in the third and fourth quarters of 2009 might be “too bullish,” Cramer said during Friday’s Stop Trading!. While the shift in focus toward the second half of the year is typical as July 1 approaches, “there are a lot of people staking out high-economic-growth ground right now.”

Cramer pointed specifically to two new Citigroup reports on Eaton and Cummins . The bank recommended buying both stocks on a “big change in the economy,” he said, which can’t be guaranteed. J.P. Morgan also released a report today predicting significant growth in the latter part of the year.

“Even though I am a bull,” Cramer said, “those are too bullish for me.”

Elsewhere in the market, Cramer urged investors to steer clear of the homebuilders regardless of the goodish news from KB Homesand Lennar. Both companies reported an increase in orders last quarter, but competition against foreclosed-home sales is fierce, with 50% of all sales in California coming from foreclosures, Cramer said. Plus, mortgage rates can’t be raised too boost profits, and incentives are needed to entice buyers.

Investors can buy the banks, though. Cramer endorsed Wells Fargo on its ability to unload its inventory of foreclosed homes, without taking a loss, as prices stabilize. Banks also make money on home-sale transactions.

“There’s just no money being made by these homebuilders,” Cramer said. “The money’s being made by the banks.”

Cramer's charitable trust owns Wells Fargo.

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