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What a bad way to end a terrific quarter. Both the Dow [.DJIA
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] and S&P 500 [.SPX
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] finished in negative territory on Tuesday after an unexpected drop in consumer confidence cooled optimism about an economic recovery.
But despite the declines it was still Wall Street's best quarter in a decade. For the 3-month period ending June 30th the S&P 500 finished about 15% higher making it the best quarter since 1998!
Quarterly Stats -- Top Sectors:
Financials +43%
Technology +20
Consumer Dis. +19%
Quarterly Stats -- Worst Sectors:
Utilities +11%
Healthcare +10%
Staples +10%
How should you position yourself?
Strategy Session with the Fast Money Traders
Transports [.TRAN
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] were down on Tuesday, explains Guy Adami. They’re now down two-days in a row and I can’t dismiss that. As a Dow theorist I think stocks go lower.
It seems to me the third quarter won’t be nearly as easy as the second quarter, adds Joe Terranova. During the next three months investors will have to be nimble.
I’m mildly optimistic going forward, says Karen Finerman, but it seems to me the market has been wildly optimistic. I really want to see what the financial firms have to say when they report earnings in July before I can get terribly excited.
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BANKS: BAD DAY
Investors took profits in the sector that ended as the quarter’s best performer. Financials [XLF
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] finished the day lower lower with JPMorgan [JPM
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] and Goldman Sachs [GS
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] both in negative territory.
In the space, I’m keeping an eye on Goldman , says Guy Adami. Although I think they report a strong quarter I would not own this stock at these levels. Instead I’d wait for a pullback into the $130’s. Same thing for Jeffreies [JEF
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] , he adds. I’d wait for a pullback to $18.50.
I think Goldman Sachs will report earnings that are staggering, says Pete Najarian defiantly. I’m bullish on Goldman as well as Morgan Stanley [MS
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] and JPMorgan [JPM
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].
And another name that has outperformed this quarter is Blackstone [BX
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], he adds. Around $10 I think it’s an interesting stock.
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OIL: GREAT QUARTER, BAD DAY
Oil finished the quarter up a whopping 41% making it the best 3-month period for crude since 1990.
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What’s the oil trade?
An overnight reversal in crude made me a little bearish, explains Joe Terranova. However I think the trade is flat – not short. If you’re looking for a long trade, I’d look at the integrated names which have seemed to lag.
If the OIH [OIH
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] trades down to $90, I think it’s a buying opportunity, adds Guy Adami. And if you’re an aggressive trader I think it’s okay to short crude.
I’m short the USO [USO
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], reveals Karen Finerman but not as a bet on lower crude prices — rather as a hedge to my oilfield services exposure.
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OTHER ASSET CLASSES
With the dollar and Treasurys making headlines over the last 3 months, how should you play them going forward?
I think it’s still a smart bet to expect inflation, says Karen Finerman. I’d be long the TBT [TBT
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].
Quite frankly it wouldn’t surprise me to see a spike in the dollar [UUP
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], adds Guy Adami, if for no other reason than nobody expects it.
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THIRD QUARTER OUTLOOK
Considering the S&P ended the quarter about 15% higher, how should you position yourself going forward. For insights we turned to strategic investor Dennis Gartman, author of The Gartman Letter.
Gartman’s Ways To Play
Buy Energy
Short Bonds
Stay Out Of Gold
*Due to technical difficulties during the taping of this segment we were unable to recap it in its entirety. For more please watch the video.
- Your First Move For Wednesday November 10th
- Web Extra: The Best Trades In Tech
- Pops & Drops: UPS, Electronic Arts...
- Take Your Position: Retail Earnings
- The Return of Dividend Investing?
- Should You Believe in this Rally?
- Trading in this Technicals-Driven Market
- HALFTIME REPORT: How to Trade Senator Dodd's Financial Reforms
- Your First Move For Tuesday November 9th
- Web Extra: The Dow's Only Loser
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Trader disclosure: On June 30th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (C), (GS), (BTU), (AGU), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE); Terranova Owns (TER), (RIMM), (MSFT), (XBI), (ABT); Finerman Owns (RIG); Finerman's Firm Own (NOK), (PBR), (RIG), (WMT), (FCN), (TBT), (ELX); FInerman's Firm Owns (WFC) Preferred; Finerman Owns (WFC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Owns (BAC) Preferred; Finerman Owns (BAC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Is Short (IJR), (IYR), (MDX), (SPY), (USO); Najarian Owns (F) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (GS) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (INTC) & Short (INTC) Calls; Najarian Owns (JPM) & Short (JPM) calls; Najarian Owns (PALM) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (WNR) & Short (WNR) Calls; Najarian Owns (YHOO) Call Spread
Gartman Owns (PBR), (SU), (GS), (LOW); Gartman Owns Gold; Gartman Is Short (CVX), (XOM), (BRK.b)
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