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BAD ENDING TO GREAT QUARTER
On the last day of the quarter, both the Dow [.DJIA
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] and S&P 500 [.SPX
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] were trading sharply lower after a surprising drop in consumer confidence raised doubts about the speed of an economic recovery. Also, falling oil prices [US@CL.1
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] sank energy shares.
Still, the S&P 500 is up about 15% this quarter, putting it on track for its best period since 1998.
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Considering the gains, does Tuesday's sell-off signal the beginning of a pause?
Instant Insights with the Fast Money Traders
The dramatic sell-off makes investors feel less confident, explains Fast Money trader Joe Terranova. But I think it’s what we needed.
I think we’re seeing rotation, adds OptionMonster Jon Najarian. The stocks that are hottest at the end of a quarter tend to be among the weakest starters in the next quarter. And I’m a buyer of stocks that are weakest at the end of the quarter such as Deere[DE
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]. They tend to show strength.
Quarterly Stats -- Top Sectors:
Financials +32%
Technology +16%
Consumer Dis. +16%
Quarterly Stats -- Worst Sectors:
Staples +7%
Utilities +9%
Energy +9%
It seems to me the market needs some very good news to go beyond this leap of faith rally that we’ve had since March, adds Jim Iuorio of TJM. Until that happens I think we see rotation and I think the next sectors to see inflows are utilities [XLU
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]and consumer staples [XLP
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]. And then energy [XLE
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] after that.
Right now I think the demise of the dollar [UUP
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] and the way the Vix [VIX
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] is moving is a recipe for things to start picking up, speculates Mike Gurka of Empower Global. I’m positive on the third quarter. If we can get half the gains in the third that we saw in the second, this will be a good year.
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FINANCIALS FALLING
It looks like investors are taking profits in the sector poised to be the best performer over the last 3 months. Around lunchtime financials [XLF
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] were trading lower with Bank of America [BAC
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], JPMorgan [JPM
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] and Goldman Sachs [GS
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] all down for the day.
Financials have clearly lost momentum, explains Joe Terranova. For me the ‘tell’ will be if we see money flow into the sector during the first 15 days of July. And if they’re able to navigate earnings in a positive way.
I’d take advantage of the move, counsels Jon Najarian. I’m a buyer of Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs. But stay away from the rest.
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TECH'S GREAT QUARTER
Technology shares are up about 16% for the quarter led by gains in Apple [AAPL
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] and Microsoft [MSFT
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]. Is technology poised to become the new market leader?
I think technology [XLK
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] will continue to lead, speculates Mike Gurka and I’m positive on the Nasdaq.
In the space, I’m seeing strong put activity in Nvidia [NVDA
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], adds Jon Najarian. Speculation that Apple is switching to AMD chips is driving bearish bets.
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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Investors are anxious to see what Thursday’s jobs number does to stocks after consumer confidence came in weaker than expected and dragged down the Dow [.DJIA
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] by triple digits.
The unemployment rate is expected to rise to a 26-year high of 9.6 percent from May's reported 9.4 percent, according to a Reuters poll of economists.
I think we see people continue to spend, speculates Zach Karabell. It’s just now shoppers will spend within reason. But people are perfectly capable of feeling crappy and spending.
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Trader disclosure: On June 30th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (C), (GS), (BTU), (AGU), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE); Terranova Owns (TER), (RIMM), (MSFT), (XBI), (ABT); Finerman Owns (RIG); Finerman's Firm Own (NOK), (PBR), (RIG), (WMT), (FCN), (TBT), (ELX); FInerman's Firm Owns (WFC) Preferred; Finerman Owns (WFC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Owns (BAC) Preferred; Finerman Owns (BAC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Is Short (IJR), (IYR), (MDX), (SPY), (USO); Najarian Owns (F) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (GS) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (INTC) & Short (INTC) Calls; Najarian Owns (JPM) & Short (JPM) calls; Najarian Owns (PALM) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (WNR) & Short (WNR) Calls; Najarian Owns (YHOO) Call Spread
CNBC.com with wires
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