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Market Fireworks Before Independence Day?

Fourth of July fireworks
Fourth of July fireworks

Historically and on average, the U.S Markets have been up on the day before Independence Day and relatively flat the day after. The S&P has averaged best of the major indices on the day before the July 4th holiday is observed, up an average of .5% and up 70% of the time.

UPDATE >> As of midday, all the indices are down over 2%, putting us on track for the worst start to the July 4th holiday ever!

Here is a look at the major indices before and after the fireworks go off...

Dow (Since 1900):

  • The day before Independence Day, an average gain of 0.39%, Best of 5.74% in 1933, Worst -1.28% in 1991.
  • The day after Independence Day, an average gain of 0.02%, Best of 3.58% in 2002, Worst -4.5% in 1931.
  • One week after Independence Day, an average gain of 0.19%, Best of 4.12% in 1934, Worst -6.79% in 1931.
  • One month after Independence Day, an average gain of ~1%, Best of 34.3% in 1932, Worst -15.01% in 1903.
  • From Independence Day to Labor Day, an average gain of 2.1%, Best of 72.9% in 1932, Worst -15.97% in 1998.

S&P 500 (Since 1928):

  • The day before Independence Day, an average gain of 0.46%, Best of 4.58% in 1933, Worst -1.10% in 1991.
  • The day after Independence Day, an average gain of 0.05%, Best of 3.67% in 2002, Worst -3.91% in 1931.
  • One week after Independence Day, an average gain of 0.50%, Best of 4.52% in 1937, Worst -5.3% in 1931.
  • One Month after Independence Day, an average gain of 0.83%, Best of 41.7% in 1932, Worst -11.2% in 1933.
  • From Independence Day to Labor Day, an average gain of 2.02%, Best of 92.2% in 1932, Worst -15.85% in 1998.

Nasdaq Composite (Since 1971):

  • The day before Independence Day, an average gain of 0.12%, Best of 1.65% in 2002, Worst -0.99% in 1992.
  • The day after Independence Day, an average loss of -0.18%, Best of 4.94% in 2002, Worst -3.23% in 2000.
  • One week after Independence Day, an average gain of 0.08%, Best of 4.24% in 2003, Worst -7.88% in 2001.
  • One Month after Independence Day, an average loss of -0.6 %, Best of 9.4% in 1997, Worst -10.8% in 1986.
  • From Independence Day to Labor Day, an average gain of 0.51%, Best of 12.84% in 1980, Worst -17.96% in 1998.

On the disappointing jobs numbersthis morning, the futures are down so we may not see the fireworks we would hope for on this day before the holiday. In the pre-market, 3M, Alcoa , Kraft , Travelers and Bank of America were leading the Dow to the downside.

Send comments to:bythenumbers@cnbc.com

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