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Treasurys and other government bonds will prosper if the inflation threat stays at bay a little longer, and a slight fall in the Russian market would help the global economy, Robin Griffiths, technical strategist at Cazenove Capital, told CNBC Monday.
"It's all about the battle between equities and bonds," Griffiths said.
At the March stocks low, the yield on Treasurys was "so little, they were wholly unattractive," Griffiths told CNBC. Yet as the yield rallied, and bond prices fell, people grew concerned about inflation, he added.
The fact that recent sales of US and UK government bonds went well is encouraging, according to Griffiths.
If investors are of the mind that the threat of inflation is only a concern further down the line, then with unemployment levels so high, Gilts and Treasurys "look like pretty risk-free places to go," he said.
"We are going to pull back towards, or at least half-way back down, the recent yield rise," he added.
Russian Retracement May Help Economy
"It's pretty important which direction the price of oil and gas goes right now. I actually think that it's going to correct downwards, bringing the Russian index off a little bit with it," Griffiths told CNBC.
"The temporary problem for the Russian market — it might go half retracement of that earlier rise — is actually going to help our overall global scenario," he added.
Sterling to Enjoy Summer Rise, then Autumn Fall
"There is a bit more upward momentum to it," Griffiths said of the sterling-dollar cross. "In the short run, it could easily make $1.70."
"In mid-summer the cable rate can still go up," he said, adding the period for it dropping back would be during October.
"Then it would be jolly vulnerable later in the year to come back into the trading range (between $1.40 and $1.60) again," Griffiths said.
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