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Art Cashin: Dow Trapped in 17-Year Cycle

Two market obsessions now: Earnings season kicks off tomorrow (Wednesday) with Alcoa; and debate rages over the need for a second stimulus package.

Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS Financial Services, offered CNBC his stock-market insights.

Cashin decried the idea of a second stimulus, in light of the "infamous" first attempt.

"There was no 'stimulus' in the stimulus package. It was mostly social engineering," Cashin said. Thus, talk of a new plan is shaking markets with fears of even more debt — with "nothing to show for it."

Cashin revisited his theory of "the 17.6-year cycle."

"It's like the Biblical story of the fat and lean years. During the fat, you can throw a dart at the wall, and anything you buy goes up."

He believes one such cycle spanned 1982 to 2000. And he notes that from "1966 to 1982, the Dow went to 1,000 — then went back down."

Second Opinion:

What of the recent tepid rally?

"The green shoots have disappeared — it turned out to be a 'bull derivative,' as it were."

"From here on in, it's not enough to be 'less bad' — you've got to be somewhat good. And we don't see signs of that yet," Cashin maintained.

Looking forward, Cashin augured, "I think we're preparing to roll over now. Whether we're going to test those lows or just have a mild correction..?

"Well, the next two weeks, from now until July 17 — we're going to learn an awful lot."

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CNBC Slideshows:

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CNBC's Companies in the News:

Alcoa

General Motors

Ford Motor

Bank of America

General Electric*

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*General Electric is the parent company of CNBC.

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Disclosures:

Disclosure information was not available for Cashin or his company.

Disclaimer