CNBC Guest Blog
- Tamminen: Why Does Oklahoma Want To Drown New York?
- Stimulus II? Jobs Tax Credit=Cash For Clunkers
- Busch: It Ain't All Bad News
- Keith Bergelt: The Case for Market Based Patent Reform
- Farrell: Digging Into Those Jobs Numbers
- Schork Oil Outlook: Are Gas Retailers Ready to Roll Back Prices?
- Hirschhorn: Steroids & Hedge Funds
- Farr: Time to Remove the Training Wheels?
- Roginsky: It’s (Still) Change, Stupid
- Schork Oil Outlook: Is Consumer Appetite for Gasoline Waning?
MOST SHARED
- US Becomes Top Country Brand Under Obama: Survey
- Solar Market Heating Back Up?
- Realty Execs See Pain Ahead
- Sweeping Health Care Overhaul Bill Passes House
- Easy Money & Stocks
- Want the Homebuyer's Tax Credit? Here Are Some Tips
- Administration Rejects Plan to Buy Fannie Mae Credits
- Israel: Leader of Business Innovation
- Food Network, HGTV Drive Scripps Networks' Upside Surprise
- Tommy Lee, Medical Tourism and Nasty Santa, Your Emails
- U.S. Markets Gain 3% for the Week Despite 10.2% Unemployment
- Disney's 'Carol' Tests Widest 3-D Release Ever
- Stimulus II? Jobs Tax Credit=Cash For Clunkers
- Rockwell Automation Earnings: What Options Are Saying
- Gold Will Touch Higher Lows and Higher Highs: Analyst
- Is Misery Alive And Well in Your Office?
- Consumers Haven't Changed, They Are Just Pickier
- For the Jobless, 10% is Harder Than Before
- Week Ahead: Stocks Search for Catalyst in Quiet Week
- Outlook: Dollar Likely to Ride Higher on Bleak Jobs Report
- Geithner: More Stimulus, Not a Bank Tax
- Windfall is Seen as Bank Bonuses are Paid in Stock
- Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Says Net Income Tripled
- Cramer: Earnings, IPOs Dominate Next Week
- Buying Fear: How to Own Volatility
- Administration Rejects Plan to Buy Fannie Mae Credits
RSS FEED
My colleague, Anna Torma, is grateful MeadWestvaco [MWV
Loading...
()
] has held up reasonably well in this market. She does feel that if my thought that the S&P 500 is vulnerable to the lower 800's, then the difficult market environment might impact the stock. In a current note she has lowered estimates and there are some who are worried about the dividend. She has a buy rating on the stock and should it react negatively to a market move she would be an even more aggressive buyer with a target of $20. I hope otherwise, but the near term could be rocky. She thinks it could be vulnerable to $11-12 a share versus $15.84 Monday close.
I have long thought the oil market got ahead of itself. My experience has been that when "days in storage" rose above 55 days, prices of crude oil tended to weaken. The current storage is a touch over 62 days. I know that OPEC has been more disciplined in its production cutbacks but I think the recent strength in the price (not the last couple of days) has been due more to the thought economic recovery was close at hand. As I have been writing, I think that the recovery will come, but not today. I would be negative in the short term on the oils and there are a few ETF's that might be worth looking at. SCO [SCO
Loading...
()
] is the 2x levered short, SZO [SZO
Loading...
()
] is an unlevered short but apparently has poor liquidity, UCO [UCO
Loading...
()
] is 2x levered long in case you think I am out of my mind, and USO [USO
Loading...
()
] is an unlevered long. My colleague Rick Rubin, COO of Soleil, did the digging to come up with the names and says the unlevered have a tracking issue due to compounding over the long term and there is no unlevered short with any liquidity.
Ford [F
Loading...
()
] makes sense to me on the long side. Seven of Mike Ward's indicators are turning to the better and earnings at the end of July, or smaller North American losses, might surprise. Inventories are at very low levels and a few new models are scheduled for release. Mike has raised his near term target to $9.
_______________________________________
Vincent Farrell, Jr. is chief investment officer at Soleil Securities Group and a regular contributor to CNBC. 










