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Jittery investors sent stocks [.SPX
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] on their longest losing streak since the market's spring rally began in early March. Negative reports on unemployment and consumer confidence combined with falling commodity prices have kept investors largely out of stocks since mid-June.
Investors are also bracing for a busy week of corporate earnings next week with Johnson & Johnson [JNJ
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], JPMorgan [JPM
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] and Google [GOOG
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] among the many heavy hitters releasing results. The market will be closely examining their outlooks for clues as to where the economy might be heading.
How should you be positioned?
Strategy Session with the Fast Money Traders
I’m watching 870 on the S&P 500 [.SPX
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], reminds Guy Adami. Unfortuatnely we didn’t test it on Friday and that leaves us in no man’s land. Frankly I think the market wants to go lower. It could go down to 830.
I agree that the market could slip to 830, adds Tim Seymour. I’m not sure the ammunition for taking the market higher is there.
The market moved on weak consumer sentiment but of all the data that the market looks at, I think consumer confidence is of low importance, explains Karen Finerman. It’s just a measure of sentiment and that can change very quickly.
It seems to me the weakness in the market stems from crude oil. I think the market needs oil to stabilize before it can rally further, adds Joe Terranova.
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OIL IN FREEFALL
U.S. crude oil futures [US@CL.1
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] ended lower on Friday as further worries about the global economy sent investors to the sidelines and left crude to post its biggest weekly percentage loss since January.
Meanwhile, shares of the major refiners tumbled on Friday after Chevron [CVX
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] said earnings from refining fuel will be far lower versus the first quarter largely due to significantly lower refining margins in the U.S.
How should you play it?
In the space I bought Frontier [FTO
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] a refiner, reveals Joe Terranova. I understand all the negatives but I think it’s priced for Armageddon.
If you’re looking for a play in this space I’d feel better in Exxon [XOM
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], counters Tim Seymour. And I don’t think the spot price of oil has to much farther to slide. My guess is that it rallies at $57.
I’d stay away from integrated oil, counters Guy Adami. If you want to play the space I’d do it with oil services companies.
I’m concerned about rhetoric out of the government about further regulation in oil markets, adds Karen Finerman. I think that could lead to spot oil decoupling from the rest of the energy sector.
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TAKE YOUR POSITION: TECH
Both Intel [INTC
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] and Apple [AAPL
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] finished the session higher, as investors turn their full attention to tech earnings coming next week. And ahead of those profit reports Goldman Sachs changed their outlook on a number tech names.
On the upside Goldman raised the U.S. hardware sector to "attractive" from "neutral," on expectations of a potential upside, and they added Dell [DELL
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] to their prestigious Conviction Buy list.
And on the downside Goldman cut estimates on both Western Digital [WDC
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] and IBM [IBM
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] to "neutral" from "buy," based on valuation, and said all the advantages of Western Digital have already been priced into its stock. On IBM, the analyst said the potential upside to the stock's $120 price target is less than the other buy-rated stocks.
Tech Week Ahead
Monday 7/13 : Novellus
Tuesday 7/14 : Intel
Thursday 7/16: Google, IBM
How should you play tech?
I agree with Goldman on Dell, says Guy Adami. I think at current levels it’s interesting.
I hear what Goldman is saying about Dell, but I’d be more comfortable with IBM, counters Karen Finerman. If the market falls apart you’ll be much safer in big blue.
I’ve got Microsoft [MSFT
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] on my radar, reveals Tim Seymour. I think a massive corporate upgrade to Windows 7 could be significant.
In the space I like Teradyne [TER
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], reveals Joe Terranova.
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WORST SECTOR: BANKS
Financials were the biggest losers on Friday ahead of key bank earnings due next week. Goldman Sachs [GS
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] kicks off bank earnings on July 14; then later in the week we’ll hear from JPMorgan [JPM
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], Bank of America [BAC
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] and the besieged behemoth Citigroup [C
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].
I think JPMorgan is a bellwether, explains Karen Finerman. They have a huge recurring revenue stream which I like.
I like Goldman but not at these levels, adds Guy Adami. But I’d be a buyer around $130.
For me the ban trade is long Morgan Stanley [MS
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], says Joe Terranova.
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TOP STORY: GM EXITS BANKRUPTCY
A new General Motors [GMGMQ
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] emerged from bankruptcy protection on Friday -- far more quickly than most industry-watchers had expected -- as a leaner automaker pledging to win back American consumers and pay back taxpayers.
A whirlwind 40-day bankruptcy for GM concluded with the closing of a deal that sold key operations to a new company that is majority-owned by the U.S. Treasury.
What’s next for one of America’s largest companies? Find out from CNBC’s Phil Lebeau. Watch the video now!
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Trader disclosure: On July 10th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders: Adami Owns (AGU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE), (BTU); Finerman's Firm Owns (MSFT), (PBR); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (BAC) Preferred Shares; Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (RIG); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (WFC) Preferred Shares, Finerman's Firm Is Short (WFC); Finerman's Firm Is Short (SPY), (USO), (BWA), (IYR), (IJR), (MDY), (SPY), (IWM); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (FLS); Seymour Owns (TSO); Terranova Owns (TER), (FTO), (SUN), (RIMM), (MSFT); GE Is The Parent Company Of CNBC
Terranova Works For (VRTS); Terranova Is Chief Alternatives Strategist Of Virtus Investment Partners, Ltd.; Terranova Is Co-Portfolio Manager Of The Virtus Diversifier PHOLIO; Virtus Diversifier PHOLIO Owns (IGE), (DBC), (DBV); Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (ABD), (CBL), (CAL), (CLB), (DLR), (EXR), (IGE), (MEE), (DBC), (DBV), (DBA), (SKT), (TNB), (UA), (WBMD);Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of St Mary Land & Exploration Co; Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of Seagate Tax Refund Rights
CNBC.com with wires
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