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] surged higher on Thursday, but the move was triggered by more than renewed interest in the ag trade. What’s got this stock going?Investors were betting that Mosaic could grab $56/share after one of Brazil’s largest newspapers reported that Vale [VALE
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], the world's largest iron ore miner, may bid for the fertilizer company.
Global interest in fertilizer has risen sharply in the last couple of years, with a very small group of companies controling about 75 percent of global supply of potash and the price has until recently remained stubbornly high.
"From a big-picture perspective it fits with Brazil's stated strategy of becoming self-sufficient in fertilizer," says Morningstar analyst Ben Johnson. "Mosaic would be the best fit in terms of the assets that are out there, given that they have got substantial potash and phosphate assets and a distribution network that is already in place."
However, that’s not to say it’s a done deal. Cargill control 444 million shares and they might not be for sale. "We believe Cargill has a constructive longer-term outlook for phosphate and potash fertilizers, and thus is an unlikely seller of Mosaic from a strategic view," Bank of America analyst Felipe Hirai wrote in a research note.
"Cargill does not need the cash, as its balance sheet is stronger than it has been in many years. Given Mosaic's market cap neared 60 billion a year ago, we believe any bid for Mosaic that would interest Cargill would have to be much higher than the reported $25 billion."
What’s the trade?
I think the trade in Mosaic is over, counsels Jon Najarian. However, I’d look Agrium [AGU
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], Potash [POT
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] and Intrepid Potash [IPI
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].
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Trader disclosure: On July 16th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Seymour Owns (AAPL), (BAC), (FXI), (GE) Seygem Asset Management Owns (NOK) Calls; Finerman's Firm Owns (WMT), (MSFT), (NOK); Finerman's Firm Is Short (IYR), (IJR), (MDY), (SPY), (IWM), (XRT)
Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (BAC) Preferred Shares, Finerman Owns (BAC); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (WFC) Preferred Shares, Finerman's Firm Is Short (WFC); Pete Najarian Owns (YHOO) Call Spread; Pete Najarian Owns (INTC) Calls, (IBM) Calls; Jon Najarian Owns (AGU), (IPI); Terranova Owns (TER), (MSFT), (RIMM), (INTC), (SUN), (FTO); Terranova Owns (CCE) Calls
GE Is The Parent Company Of CNBC
Terranova Works For (VRTS)
Terranova Is Chief Alternatives Strategist Of Virtus Investment Partners, Ltd.
Terranova Is Co-Portfolio Manager Of The Virtus Diversifier PHOLIO
Virtus Diversifier PHOLIO Owns (IGE)
Virtus Diversifier PHOLIO Owns (DBC)
Virtus Diversifier PHOLIO Owns (DBV)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (ABD)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CBL)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CAL)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CLB)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DLR)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (EXR)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (IGE)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (MEE)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DBC)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DBV)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DBA)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of St Mary Land & Exploration Co
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of Seagate Tax Refund Rights
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (SKT)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (TNB)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (UA)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (WBMD)
For Jared Levy:
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (CROX)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (ESL)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (FDX)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (FTO)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (FXI)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (GE)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (GILD)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (GS)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (HOT)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (JPM)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (KSU)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (MOS)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (NOK)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (POT)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (RIO)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (SGP)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (STLD)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (XLF)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (XLNX)
For Peter Jacobs:
Jacobs Owns (GE)
Wells Fargo Investments And/Or Affiliates Owns 1% Or More Of (GE)
Wells Fargo Investments And/Or Affiliates Owns 1% Or More Of (ESL)
Wells Fargo Investments And/Or Affiliates Owns 1% Or More Of (KSU)
Wells Fargo Investments And/Or Affiliates Owns 1% Or More Of (MMM)
Jacobs Owns (SLE)
Wells Fargo Investments And/Or Affiliates Owns 1% Or More Of (VWO)
Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes