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Housing stocks moved Friday after new data showed construction hit its highest level in 7 months.
However all may not be as it appears. Builders rushed to pour foundations for homes that must be completed by the end of November for first-time buyers to take advantage of a special tax break.
As you may remember, first-time buyers are eligible for a tax credit worth 10 percent of the purchase price, with a cap of $8,000, this year only, due to Obama's stimulus package.
"The largest spark...has been the looming deadline," says David Crowe, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders.
However, shares of major homebuilders [XHB
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] rose on the news, with KB Home [KBH
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] and Hovnanian [HOV
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] among the sector’s top winners.
But even with the better-than-expected figures, the pace was still 46% below last year, and many pundits don't expect a quick rebound. That's because companies are still shedding jobs and home prices are falling, making people hesitant to commit to buying a new home.
"There's still a long way to go before one wants to declare anything that begins to look like a strong recovery or success," says Rebecca Blank, undersecretary of commerce for economic affairs.
Better not tell that to Deutsche Bank economist Joe LaVorgna. He tells the Fast Money desk that after months of being extremely bearish, he's starting to feel more optimistic. In fact he says, “I think the housing market may have bottomed!”
Find out what's influencing LaVorgna's outlook. Watch the video now!
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Trader disclosure: On July 17th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders: Najarian Owns (BTU) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (F) Calls; Najarian Owns (INTC) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (JPM) And Is Short (JPM) Calls; Najarian Owns (MCD) And Is Short (MCD) Calls; Najarian Owns (MS) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (MSFT) And Is Short (MSFT) Calls; Najarian Owns (SU) Calls; Najarian Owns (XLF) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (YHOO) Call Spread; Finerman's Firm Owns (MSFT), (NOK), (WMT), (APC); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (WFC) Preferred Shares, Finerman's Firm Is Short (WFC); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (BAC) Preferred Shares; Finerman's Firm Is Short (IJR), (IYR), (IWM), (MDY), (SPY), (USO); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (RIG); Terranova Owns (TER), (RIMM), (SUN), (MSFT), (FTO); Terranova Works For (VRTS); Terranova Is Chief Alternatives Strategist Of Virtus Investment Partners, Ltd.; Terranova Is Co-Portfolio Manager Of The Virtus Diversifier PHOLIO; Virtus Diversifier PHOLIO Owns (IGE), (DBC), (DBV)
For Joe Terranova:
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (ABD)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CBL)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CAL)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CLB)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DLR)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (EXR)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (IGE)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (MEE)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DBC)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DBV)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DBA)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of St Mary Land & Exploration Co
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of Seagate Tax Refund Rights
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (SKT)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (TNB)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (UA)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (WBMD)
For Jared Levy:
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (AGU)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (AMZN)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (BBT)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (BTU)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (EBAY)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (FCX)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (GE)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (GS)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (HAS)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (IGT)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (JPM)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (KO)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (MAT)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (MCD)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (MO)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (NOK)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (PENN)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (PLCE)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (PM)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (POT)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (SBUX)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (SHFL)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (SU)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (UPS)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (WMT)
Peak6 Investments Is Short And Has An Options Position In (XLF)
Peak6 Investments Owns And Has An Options Position In (AXP)
Peak6 Investments Owns And Has An Options Position In (BA)
Peak6 Investments Owns And Has An Options Position In (BAC)
Peak6 Investments Owns And Has An Options Position In (C)
Peak6 Investments Owns And Has An Options Position In (CAT)
Peak6 Investments Owns And Has An Options Position In (CIT)
Peak6 Investments Owns And Has An Options Position In (COF)
Peak6 Investments Owns And Has An Options Position In (F)
Peak6 Investments Owns And Has An Options Position In (GLD)
Peak6 Investments Owns And Has An Options Position In (GOOG)
Peak6 Investments Owns And Has An Options Position In (IBM)
Peak6 Investments Owns And Has An Options Position In (INTC)
Peak6 Investments Owns And Has An Options Position In (JNJ)
Peak6 Investments Owns And Has An Options Position In (LM)
Peak6 Investments Owns And Has An Options Position In (MMM)
Peak6 Investments Owns And Has An Options Position In (MRK)
Peak6 Investments Owns And Has An Options Position In (MS)
Peak6 Investments Owns And Has An Options Position In (MSFT)
Peak6 Investments Owns And Has An Options Position In (PFE)
Peak6 Investments Owns And Has An Options Position In (SJM)
Peak6 Investments Owns And Has An Options Position In (TXN)
Peak6 Investments Owns And Has An Options Position In (USB)
Peak6 Investments Owns And Has An Options Position In (USO)
Peak6 Investments Owns And Has An Options Position In (UNG)
Peak6 Investments Owns And Has An Options Position In (YHOO)
Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes