Another Naz Move of Dot-Boom Proportions?
The end of the Nasdaq’s 12-day run may actually have been a beginning, Cramer said Monday, of a much bigger rally to come. Similar moves have prefaced historic tech bull markets, so we might be in store for another.
In 1992, the Naz registered 13 straight days of positive closes, while the index saw 11 in 1996. Though ’92 had seen about a 5% pullback after six months, the Nasdaq had shot up 14% a year later. Two years after the first multiday run that number had jumped to 28%. A matching trend played out in ’96. Six months after the near two-week run, the Nasdaq was up almost 4%. In a year’s time, the gains had reached 38%. By 1999, investors had added on 137%.
What’s the takeaway? Moves that had been measured in mere weeks were later measured in years.
Beyond the numbers, though, it was the product cycles that drove the Naz every time. The personal computer’s mass adoption raised Microsoft , Intel and Dell to new status levels in 1992, and the Internet did much the same for Yahoo! , AOL and Microsoft again in 1996.
Well, 2009 is no different. Regular watchers of Mad Money know how often Cramer has talked of mobile Internet and its possibilities. We need on-the-go access to the Web just as we do cable TV at home. We’re growing so dependent on handsets that do it all that Cramer predicted the market would live off this secular growth for the foreseeable future. Apple’s iPhone, Research in Motion’s BlackBerrys, Qualcomm’s wireless technologies and a host of other components and their makers will lead a seismic shift “that could be just as game-changing and profitable as the last two huge tech trends,” he said.
Here’s the bottom line: The Naz dipped after its 1992 run, but climbed in 1996. So, at least for the short term, the index could move in either direction. But Cramer predicted that we’d see some kind of sell-off given how overbought the market is right now. He urged investors to use the decline to buy the best stocks related to mobile Web.
Cramer's charitable trust owns Qualcomm.
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