What’s Your Year End Dow And Second Half Real GDP Forecast?
Dow 9400 GDP: 1%
Keith Boykin Fmr. Clinton White House Aide / The Daily Voice Editor
The Dow will spike up near 11,000 this year before correcting itself back down to 9400 by the close of the year. That's still up for the year and up significantly from the low in March.
With the markets stabilized and unemployment at a peak, we will begin to see modest growth by the fourth quarter as businesses begin hiring again.
Dow 9700, GDP: .75%
Vince Farrell Scotsman Capital Management
Q3 GDP will be up a bit. Usually rebounds are much stronger, but with capacity utilization so low and the consumer savings rate rising like it is, the rebound will be muted.
The Dow will finish 5% above where it is now. We are probably ahead of ourselves in the market with the underlying fundamentals being as they are. So I would think a setback of up to 10% followed by a year end rally .
Dow 8500, GDP: 0.5%
Doug Kass Presidnt, Seabreeze Partners Management
The domestic economy will disappoint in the second half as growing joblessness weighs on personal consumption expenditures - serving to reduce consumer confidence and raise savings rates further.
The credit after shock will continue to haunt the economy and a number of non traditional headwinds (e.g. continued government intrusion into the private sector and the specter of higher marginal tax rates) will raise the probability of an economic double dip in 2010. .