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Is "Less Bad" Enough To Keep Rally In Tact?

Traders are keeping a close eye on employment figures out Friday at 8:30am worried that weaker than expected data could give the bears the catalyst they’ve been itching for -- to take the market down.

Ahead of Friday’s report, ADP released its own figures on private employers, which showed 371,000 jobs lost in July, slightly more than anticipated. Although more jobs were lost, the rate of decline hit its slowest pace since October.

But will “less bad” be enough to keep the rally in tact?

If history is any indication, maybe this chart will help you anticipate Friday's market reaction to the jobs number.

Stocks & Jobs (Last 3 Reports)

July 2
> Payrolls drop 467k (worse than expected)
> Dow down 224

June 5
> Payrolls drop 345k (better than expected)
> Dow Up 13

May 8
> Payrolls drop 539K (better than expected)
> Dow Up 175

What should you expect? And how will the market react?

The Fast Money desk agrees, on a good number sell the rally, if in fact the market puts forth a rally. And the surprise could be a number to the downside, adds Joe Terranova. If the number is terribly weak, look out below.


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Trader disclosure: On Aug 5th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Terranova Owns (MSFT), (RIMM), (JPM), (MS), (ABT), (MCD), (AMZN); Terranova Works For (VRTS); Terranova Is Short (TM), (WFC), (WYNN), (F); Finerman Owns (RIG); Finerman's Firm Owns (MSFT), (NOK), (PBR), (RIG), (PDE), (TBT), (WMT), (TGT); Finerman's Firm Is Short (USO), (IJR), (IYR), (IWM), (MDY), (SPY); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (BAC) Preferred Shares; Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (WFC) Preferred Shares; Finerman's Firm Is Short (WFC); Finermna's Firm Is Long (WFMI) Puts; Najarian Owns (AET); Najarian Owns (BAC) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (BX) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (BUCY) & (BUCY) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (FCX) & (FCX) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (INTC) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (JPM) & (JPM) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (MS) & Short (MS) Calls; Najarian Owns (MSFT) & Short (MSFT) Calls; Najarian Owns (PALM) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (V) & Short (V) Calls; Najarian OWns (YHOO) Call Spread ; Najarian Owns (SYNA) Calls; Najarian Owns (CSCO) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (SWNA) Calls; Adami Owns (AGU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE), (BTU)



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