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On Thursday, the widely followed market prognosticator Abby Joseph Cohen told CNBC that, in her estimation, stocks have begun in a new bull market.
That's right, she said we're heading higher with the S&P rising from the current 1000 to the 1050-to 1100 range by the end of the year, according to her estimates. (Click here for more)
But what if she’s wrong. Very wrong. According to Gluskin Sheff chief economist David Rosenberg, those estimate could be pie in the sky.
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He tells Fast Money to forget the bull, this is a bear market and we could well be in the midst of the biggest bear market rally of all time!
Now we know what you’re thinking. Rosenberg is widely known for his bearish views. But he did predict the latest downturn months before anyone else.
Could he be onto something, now?
Rosenberg tells Fast Money he’s worried that investors are so desperate for gains that they’re pushing the S&P higher wearing blinders.
“I’m seeing an S&P 500 that has priced in 30% profit growth next year. We were priced for Armageddon and now we’re priced for nirvana but the truth is probably somewhere in between.”
As far as Rosenberg is concerned, stocks can’t support their current gains.
Here’s why:
- Financial stability remains uncertain in the post-bubble credit collapse
- Wages are deflating at a record pace
- Three quarters of the corporate universe is showing no revenue growth to speak of
- Only one third of ISM industries posted growth in July with barely 1 in 10 adding to payrolls
- Strength in the private sector stems largely from stimulus spending, it’s not organic
Now, we know there’s another side to this argument. The bulls will tell you that the market overshot to the downside and it’s just getting back to where it should be.
Come to think of it, that’s the trillion question! Where should stocks be? What do you think? We want to know.
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Trader disclosure: On Aug 6th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE), (BTU); Najarian Owns (AA) Call Spread: Najarian Owns (BUCY) And Is Short (BUCY) Calls; Najarian Owns (CSCO) And Is Short (CSCO) Calls; Najarian Owns (HIG) Calls; Najarian Owns (INTC) And Is Short (INTC) Calls; Najarian Owns (JPM) And Is Short (JPM) Calls; Najarian Owns (MS) And Is Short (MS) Calls; Najarian Owns (MSFT) And Is Short (MSFT) Calls; Najarian Owns (YHOO) Call Spread; Terranova Owns (MSFT), (RIMM), (MCD), (AMZN); Terranova Is Short (F), (WYNN); Seygem Asset Management Is Short (PBR); Seymour Owns (AAPL), (AA), (BAC), (C), (TM)
GE Is The Parent Company Of CNBC; NBC Universal Is The Parent Company Of CNBC
For Joe Terranova
Terranova Is Co-Portfolio Manager Of The Virtus Diversifier PHOLIO
Virtus Diversifier PHOLIO Owns (IGE)
Virtus Diversifier PHOLIO Owns (DBC)
Virtus Diversifier PHOLIO Owns (DBV)
Terranova Works For (VRTS)
Terranova Is Chief Market Strategist Of Virtus Investment Partners, Ltd.
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (ABD)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CAL)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DLR)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (EXR)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (IGE)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DBC)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DBV)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (SKT)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (TNB)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (UA)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CLB)
For Jared Levy
Peak6 Investments Owns And Has An Options Position In (SLV)
Peak6 Investments Owns And Has An Options Position In (GLD)
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