Dollar to Bottom vs. European Currencies: Strategist
Forex strategists Alan Ruskin of Royal Bank of Scotland and Mike Moran of Standard Chartered Bank discussed where the U.S. dollar is headed and where investors should be looking to maximize their profits.
“I think we’re going to see some strength in the dollar,” Moran told CNBC. “We’re going to see the dollar slightly firm and consolidate for the next few weeks and then we’ll be looking at shorting the dollar again, especially against some of the emerging-market currencies.”
In the meantime, Ruskin said he sees the dollar forming a bottom against some of the European currencies.
“I don’t think it’s forming a bottom against some of the riskier currencies like the Brazilian real or the Chinese yuan. But against the euro, values like 147 or 150 are great opportunity to sell your dollar and buy dollars at that point,” he said.
Ruskin said the Fed is no longer printing dollars and allowing the markets to set interest rates.
“It suggests that we’ll be sucking in huge amounts of foreign inflows to finance our domestic deficit, and those inflows will be very large in relation to the current account deficit, which has shrunk enormously and provides a backdrop for a stronger dollar,” he said.
“Brazil, Indonesia and Asia are the favorite,” he said. “Even Turkey is not bad.”
In the European side of things, Ruskin recommended looking at the cross rates.
“I like Sweden vs. euro and the Norwegian vs. euro as well. Those are very good cross rate bets,” he said.
“We’re looking at stronger growth in the Asian economies and as a technical trade risk averse short term trade, we’re looking at some of the yen crosses.”
“And if you’re talking investment strategy-wise, we’re looking at the Korean won, Indonesian [rupiah]—both have shown some strong numbers on the growth side and on the valuation side, look at the [Brazilian] real.”
No immediate information was available for Moran or Ruskin.