$100 a Barrel For Oil By Year-End: Kilduff
Which way is the price of oil headed? We got different opinions Wednesday from John Kilduff senior energy analyst with MF Global and CNBC contributor and Walter Zimmerman, chief technical analyst with United-ICAP
"I think the economic policies of the US government are going to pressure the dollar and cause inflation," said Kilduff. "I think you buy commodities. I think oil will be $100 a barrel before the end of the year."
But Zimmerman disagrees saying, "Everything we look at says inflation is impossible. We think deflation is the risk. If you are long commodities, have some protective sell stops in."
As for how the upcoming hurricane season, now in effect with Hurricane Bill, will effect the oil market, Kilduff says it all depends on which way the storms go.
"In terms of natural gas, we [the US] have diversified ourselves out of the Gulf of Mexico to a great degree," said Kilduff. "It used to be responsible for some 20 percent of our production but now it's down to 11 percent. But if the hurricanes don't get deflected out to the Atlantic Ocean, it could menace our production."
And Zimmerman sees some commodity investors almost hoping for a major storm.
"Natural gas inventories are so high right now," says Zimmerman. "I have to think anybody long on commodities are 'praying' for a hurricane, to try and restore some balance to an over stuffed market"
As for China, both men disagree over the impact China's economy is having on commodities.
"China has not stopped stock piling commodities," says Kilduff. "The demographics are there for increased consumption there, not less. That will increase prices."
But Zimmerman says the recent decline in the Shanghai index means lower prices.
"We see much more downside risk here than upside," said Zimmerman. "Since its highs, the Shanghai index has moved down, so it is a textbook completed picture of a bear market correction and a downturn."
"The only market we see on the upside is the dollar, Zimmerman said. "Because we see a crushing wave of deflation ahead and crush commodity prices."
No immediate information was available for Kilduff or Zimmermann.
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