GO
Loading...

Market Performance After the Strongest 6-Month Rallies Since 1933

As investors look ahead, following the Dow and S&P 500 best 6-month performance since 1933, the following statistics provide insight into how both equity indexes performed 6-months and 12-months after a 6-month rally greater than 30%.

According to data compiled by CNBC, the Dow has trended higher 69% of the time 6-months after a 6-month gain higher than 30%, while the S&P 500 has posted further gains 57% of the time.

Since 1933, there has been 273 instances, when the Dow and S&P posted gains greater than 30% in a 6-month period.

Of those occurences:

  • 68.75% of the time the Dow was positive after 6 months
  • 59.93% of the time the Dow was positive after 12 months
  • 57.35% of the time the S&P was positive after 6 months
  • 47.06% of the time the S&P was positive after 12 months

After a 6-month rally greater than 30% for both the Dow & S&P in 1933, 1975 and 1982, the stock market was positive 6-months and 12-months out with the exceptions of:

  • The S&P 12 months after the 10/1933 rally
  • The Dow & S&P 6-mos after the 6/1975 rally

>> Winners and Losers Since March 9th Low

10/1933 Rally:

Dow:
Rallied up 41.98% from 6 months earlier

  • 6 Months Later - up 18.55%
  • 12 Months Later – up 7.18%

S&P 500: Rallied up 36.19% from 6 months earlier

  • 6 Months Later - up 21.61%
  • 12 Months Later – Unchanged

Note: 6/1975 was the highest point in the rally, 7/1975 was the end of that rally

6/1975 Rally:

Dow: Rallied up 46.67% from 6 months earlier

  • 6 Months Later – down -2.44%
  • 12 Months Later – up 15.23%

S&P 500: Rallied up 41.94% from 6 months earlier

  • 6 Months Later – down -5.22%
  • 12 Months Later – up 10.29%

7/1975 Rally

Dow: Rallied up 33.16% from 6 months earlier

  • 6 Months Later – up 10.71%
  • 12 Months Later – up 15.76%

S&P 500: Rallied up 30.75% from 6 months earlier

  • 6 Months Later – up 6.27%
  • 12 Months Later – up 12.31%

12/1982 Rally:

Dow: Rallied up 33.31% from 6 months earlier

  • 6 Months Later – up 14.85%
  • 12 Months Later – up 18.04%

S&P 500: Rallied up 30.27% from 6 months earlier

  • 6 Months Later – up 18.48%
  • 12 Months Later – up 15.88%

During today's trading session, Precision Castparts (PCP), Boeing (BA), and American International Group (AIG), are the biggest percent gainers in the S&P 500 , while Eastman Kodak (EK), Lennar (LEN), and Pulte Homes are the biggest percent losers.

Send comments to:bythenumbers@cnbc.com

bythenumbers.cnbc.com