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ABOUT BY THE NUMBERS

Our market specialists dig deep into Wall Street’s daily metrics, crunching the numbers to help you become smarter about the market so that you can make better investment decisions. By The Numbers details the daily drama, the winners and losers, how the day stacks up historically, and how the numbers can offer a glimpse of the future.
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Current DateTime: 05:23:22 10 Feb 2012
LinksList Documentid: 30111251

Market Performance After the Strongest 6-Month Rallies Since 1933

Published: Thursday, 27 Aug 2009 | 10:44 AM ET
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As investors look ahead, following the Dow and S&P 500 best 6-month performance since 1933, the following statistics provide insight into how both equity indexes performed 6-months and 12-months after a 6-month rally greater than 30%. 

According to data compiled by CNBC, the Dow has trended higher 69% of the time 6-months after a 6-month gain higher than 30%, while the S&P 500 has posted further gains 57% of the time. 

Since 1933, there has been 273 instances, when the Dow and S&P posted gains greater than 30% in a 6-month period. 

Of those occurences:

  • 68.75% of the time the Dow was positive after 6 months
  • 59.93% of the time the Dow was positive after 12 months
  • 57.35% of the time the S&P was positive after 6 months
  • 47.06% of the time the S&P was positive after 12 months

After a 6-month rally greater than 30% for both the Dow & S&P in 1933, 1975 and 1982, the stock market was positive 6-months and 12-months out with the exceptions of:

  • The S&P 12 months after the 10/1933 rally
  • The Dow & S&P 6-mos after the 6/1975 rally

>> Winners and Losers Since March 9th Low

10/1933 Rally:

Dow:
  Rallied up 41.98% from 6 months earlier

  • 6 Months Later - up 18.55%
  • 12 Months Later – up 7.18%

S&P 500:  Rallied up 36.19% from 6 months earlier

  • 6 Months Later - up 21.61%
  • 12 Months Later – Unchanged

Note: 6/1975 was the highest point in the rally, 7/1975 was the end of that rally

6/1975 Rally:

Dow: Rallied up 46.67% from 6 months earlier

  • 6 Months Later – down -2.44%
  • 12 Months Later – up 15.23%

S&P 500:  Rallied up 41.94% from 6 months earlier

  • 6 Months Later – down -5.22%
  • 12 Months Later – up 10.29%

7/1975 Rally

Dow: Rallied up 33.16% from 6 months earlier

  • 6 Months Later – up 10.71%
  • 12 Months Later – up 15.76%

S&P 500:  Rallied up 30.75% from 6 months earlier

  • 6 Months Later – up 6.27%
  • 12 Months Later – up 12.31%

12/1982 Rally:

Dow: Rallied up 33.31% from 6 months earlier

  • 6 Months Later – up 14.85%
  • 12 Months Later – up 18.04%

S&P 500:  Rallied up 30.27% from 6 months earlier

  • 6 Months Later – up 18.48%
  • 12 Months Later – up 15.88%

During today's trading session, Precision Castparts (PCP), Boeing (BA), and American International Group (AIG), are the biggest percent gainers in the S&P 500 [.SPX  Loading...      ()   ], while Eastman Kodak (EK), Lennar (LEN), and Pulte Homes are the biggest percent losers.    

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