Consumer Nation
- Six Pack: Beer Buzz of the Week
- Time for Flash Sales to Adapt or Die
- What Flash Sites Are Suggesting About Consumers
- Building a Beer Brand, One 'Like' at a Time
- The Six Pack: Beer Buzz of the Week
- Wal-Mart's Strong Earnings Overshadow Bribery Allegations
- Lesson for JCPenney: Consumers Are Addicted to Deals
- Fuel Prices Trump Unemployment as Risk to Retailers: Study
- The Hot Beauty Product You Never Heard Of
- The Six Pack: Beer Buzz of the Week
RSS FEED
MOST SHARED
- Labor Board Member Resigns Over Leak to GOP Allies
- JPMorgan Beefs Up China Unit With $400-Million Injection
- Despite Graft Probe, Sun Hung Kai Is a Buy on Quality Assets: Pros
- Bankia Shares Open 26.75% Down After Bailout Request
- Australia's Hastie Collapses as Building Sector Struggles
- European Shares, Euro Gain as Greek Fears Ease
- Draft EU Report Attacks Italy on Economy
- Beijing Faces Brussels Action on Telecoms Aid
- Japan's Nomura Linked to Another Insider Trading Case
- Buy Asian Stocks Now as Market Panics Over Europe: Analyst
- A New Look at the ‘New Poor’
- Six Pack: Beer Buzz of the Week
- Greek Exit Could Trigger 50% Fall in Euro Stocks: Analyst
- Under Pressure, FHA Skews to Wealthier Home Buyers
- Big Stock Upside for Hudson City Deal: Analyst
- 5 High-Yield Stocks Ready to Boost Dividends
- Yoshikami: Four Things You Need to Know About Gold Now
- Steinbock: The Euro Zone Endgame Begins
- Option Bulls Take Another Shot on Idenix
- Leading Broker to Leave Greece Stock Market
- Euro Bond Wins Supporters, but Details Remain Vague
- German, UK Bond Yields Will Go Even Lower
- Southern Europeans Wire Cash to Safer North
- Labor Board Member Resigns Over Leak to GOP Allies
- JPMorgan Beefs Up China Unit With $400-Million Injection
- Euro Rallies as Greece's Pro-Bailout Parties Gain Favor
- Olive Oil Price Dip Adds to European Woes
- Buy Asian Stocks as Market Panics Over Europe: Expert
Strong Back-to-School Sales May Make for A Less Jolly Christmas
Text Size 
News Editor
As folks try to use the back-to-school shopping season as a barometer for the Christmas holiday season, one analyst, who was pretty sharp with his forecast for the 2008 holidays, has issued his preliminary read for the 2009 season.
 |
Global Hunter Securities Consumer Strategist Richard Hastings said he expects holiday sales to be in the range of up 1 percent to down 1 percent from last year's level.
Hastings, who defines the holiday shopping period as sales that occur between November 2009 to January 2010, had predicted in October 2008 that last year's holiday sales would be down between 6 percent and 8 percent. The actual results showed a decline of 7.57 percent, close to the weaker side of his range.
Hastings's view is shaped by his belief that the credit crisis is not over, at least as far as the consumer is concerned.
Not only are consumers busy paying down their debt and conserving their cash for a rainy day, they also may be drained by back-to-school spending.
Take electronics. It's been a bright spot for the back-to-school shopping season, as consumers have snapped up laptop computers and related gear to prep students for the classroom. These big ticket purchases may be shifting some of the spending from the holiday season, Hastings said.
In short, strong back-to-school sales may make for a less jolly holiday for retailers.
One positive note, however, is that price deflation may be less of a concern this holiday period, as many retailers are prepping for weak consumer demand, Hastings said. In fact, there is some evidence that prices are firming up heading into the fall and winter period, according to his research.
As for online shopping, the recent weakness in the category has been consistent with overall trends in the industry. And, consumers continue to visit online shopping sites even if they are still only browsing.
This pattern is consistent with the shift consumers have made toward making more educated purchases. Shoppers are scouring the Internet for deals and then making their purchases armed with information.
According to Hastings, the growth in online continues to be with music and gaming-related items as well as with sites such as Amazon.com [AMZN
Loading...
()
].
Dollar stores, which include Family Dollar [FDO
Loading...
()
] among others, maybe another big winner this holiday season, Hastings said. Since prices for many items have been coming down and consumers having been heading more frequently to dollar stores, it's possible this segment could take market share away from other types of retailers.
One threatened segment is clubstores such as Costco Wholesale [COST
Loading...
()
] and BJ's Wholesale [FDO
Loading...
()
].
"Merchandising will determine the final outcome," Hastings said. The main concern appears to be margins, and sales of big ticket items, which have been weak at the clubstores, he said.
More from Consumer Nation:- Cash for Cribs? Toys 'R Us Takes Aim at Old Baby Gear
- Discount Retailers Take on the Big City
- Stock Market Has Gotten Ahead of Consumer
- Kids' Menus Don't Budge Despite Obesity Concerns
- Dollars For Dishwashers? Appliance Rebates on the Way
- What Shape Economy? Watch Back-to-School Spending
Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes
