Skip navigation
The Kudlow Report: Kudlow CaucusThe Kudlow Report: Kudlow Caucus - From Washington to Wall Street, Pro-Growth Opinions, Perspectives & Strategies to keep you on the pat to prosperity
WEEKNIGHTS 7P ET

SHOW TIMES

CNBC US:
Weeknights 7p ET

CNBC Asia:
Saturday 06:00 SIN/HK
Sunday 04:00 SIN/HK

CNBC Europe:
Monday - Friday 10:00 CET
Saturday 06:00 CET
Sunday 04:00 CET

RSS FEED

» Help

Current DateTime: 03:18:50 26 Nov 2009
LinksList Documentid: 28796340

CONTACT US

Comments? Questions?
We want To hear from you!
E-mail:
Is the stock market about to have a serious correction?
Published: Tuesday, 1 Sep 2009 | 1:04 PM ET
Text Size

The Kudlow CaucusThe Kudlow Caucus
We asked our panel:

Is the stock market about to have a serious correction?

Yes: 9
No: 3

Watch "The Kudlow Report" tonight at 7pm ET and find out what out caucus members have to say about the stock market.






The Kudlow Caucus Breakdown

Joe Battipaglia

Yes
Joe Battipaglia
Market Strategist, Stifel Nicolaus
Yes. The recent high in the S&P 500 reflects excessive bullishness on both the economy and profit growth. An economic bounce off the bottom brought about by massive interventions should not be mistaken for a new high growth cycle.

Jerry Bowyer

No
Jerry Bowyer
Chief Economist, Benchmark Financial Network
No. But we will probably have a semi-serious correction, but it will be a correction, not a bear market. I don’t think investors have completely priced in the recovery, they’ve only priced in the end of the decline; this calf has a little more strength than those spindly legs.

Keith BoykinKeith Boykin

Yes
Keith Boykin
Fmr. Clinton White House Aide / The Daily Voice Editor
At least I hope so. I missed this year's rally and have been looking for a chance to get back in when the prices are low. Maybe if I say it enough, it will happen.

Vince Farrell

Yes
Vince Farrell
Scotsman Capital Management
Yes. Define serious. If serious is 10% at a minimum, then yes, we will have a serious correction. When markets have a very strong advance like we have experienced (better than 50% in a relatively short time frame) a 1/3rd to 1/2 correction of the advance is common, even normal. From around 670 to roughly 1025 is a gain of over 350 S&P points. Take 1/3rd to 1/2 off that and you have a better than 10% correction, BUT the primary uptrend is still intact.

Doug KassDoug Kass
Yes
Doug Kass
Presidnt, Seabreeze Partners Management
I disagree with the consensus - that the market is vulnerable to only a shallow correction.

However, Mr. Market is now more clearly exhibiting a new pattern. We are experiencing selling or muted reactions to the good news, whether it's in pending home sales, evidence of improvement in the German economy overnight, ISM, etc.

As someone wise once said, it's not the news; it's (at times) how the market responds to the news that should be the take from Mr. Market. From my perch, the message and strategy is getting more clear. Most investors should now consider reducing overall invested positions as the reward vs. risk is less than exceptional believe the market .
Jim Lacamp

No
Jim LaCamp
Portfolio Manager, Portfolio Focus, RBC Wealth Management
Co-Host, Opening Bell Radio Show, Biz Radio Network
No, not yet. A correction, yes. a serious correction, not now but later.. China's market has led our market and is correcting, valuations are extended, we haven't a real correction since march. A serious correction is more likely to occur next year as economic data disappoints.

Art Laffer
Yes
Art Laffer
Fmr. Reagan Economic Advisor
Chief Investment Officer, Laffer Investments
Yes, the stock market is due for a correction. It has run-up on an infusion of easy money from the Fed, but the huge increase in the monetary base has stopped and will need to be wound down. Additionally, when health care reform and cap and trade come back onto the agenda this fall, people will again realize that bad policies emanating from Washington are dragging down corporate profits.
Donald Luskin

Yes
Donald L. Luskin
Chief Investment Officer, Trend Macrolytics LLC
Yes, although it depends what you mean by “serious” – since that can play out in any combination of price-decline and duration. I think we’ll have a correction of at least two months, and that we are likely to have to fall 20% from the highs made last Thursday. The 52% run-up from the March bottom was justified, because we are coming out of recession. But that news it out, and as it becomes the new consensus, it has to be questioned. We are NOT coming out of a depression, so an even greater rally than we’ve already had (such as the two in 1932 and 1933 off the Great Depression bottom) is NOT justified.

Steve Moore

Yes
Steve Moore
Sr. Economics Writer, The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board
Yes on the downside with the market falling back below 9000.

James Pethokoukis

Yes
James Pethokoukis
Money & Politics Columnist
Reuters
YES. The giddyness over avoiding a depression is gone. Investors ahead will have to contend with a less-accomadative Fed, so-so growth and and a federal government that refuses to launch pro-growth initiatives. Ultimately, gridock is not good.

Noam ScheiberNoam Scheiber

No
Noam Scheiber
The New Republic

I don’t think we’ll see a serious correction. I do think we’ll be hovering around 9,000 for the next 6-12 month though - until it’s clear that we’re headed back to long-term sustained growth, and that the financial system isn’t going to relapse.

Lynn TiltonLynn Tilton

Yes
Lynn Tilton
CEO, Patriarch Partners

I believe that the market has long chosen to discount the reality of an economy and financial system that recently flirted with the dangers of economic destruction and depression. We still remain mired in the consequences of the acts that took our economy to the precipice to include continued bank failures, a dearth of lending to small and middle market companies, rising unemployment and permanent job losses caused by a diminishing industrial base. I believe that it will take many years for a true recovery to take root that will include job growth, a robust housing market and broad increases in consumer spending.

© 2009 CNBC, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Add This share icon
Text Size
  • digg share
ADD COMMENTS
Remaining characters


Current DateTime: 01:44:15 26 Nov 2009
LinksList Documentid: 29778428

Current DateTime: 01:03:48 26 Nov 2009
LinksList Documentid: 29779196

Current DateTime: 01:02:06 26 Nov 2009
LinksList Documentid: 29779199

Current DateTime: 01:06:03 26 Nov 2009
LinksList Documentid: 29779198
  Data is a real-time snapshot  *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes
Global Business and Financial News, Stock Quotes, and Market Data and Analysis

© 2009 CNBC, Inc.  All Rights Reserved.
A Division of NBC Universal
Thomson ReutersThomson Reuters