We asked our panel:
Is the stock market about to have a serious correction?
Watch "The Kudlow Report" tonight at 7pm ET and find out what out caucus members have to say about the stock market.
The Kudlow Caucus Breakdown
Market Strategist, Stifel Nicolaus
Yes. The recent high in the S&P 500 reflects excessive bullishness on both the economy and profit growth. An economic bounce off the bottom brought about by massive interventions should not be mistaken for a new high growth cycle.
Jerry Bowyer Chief Economist, Benchmark Financial Network
No. But we will probably have a semi-serious correction, but it will be a correction, not a bear market. I don’t think investors have completely priced in the recovery, they’ve only priced in the end of the decline; this calf has a little more strength than those spindly legs.
Keith Boykin Fmr. Clinton White House Aide / The Daily Voice Editor
At least I hope so. I missed this year's rally and have been looking for a chance to get back in when the prices are low. Maybe if I say it enough, it will happen.
Vince Farrell Scotsman Capital Management
Yes. Define serious. If serious is 10% at a minimum, then yes, we will have a serious correction. When markets have a very strong advance like we have experienced (better than 50% in a relatively short time frame) a 1/3rd to 1/2 correction of the advance is common, even normal. From around 670 to roughly 1025 is a gain of over 350 S&P points. Take 1/3rd to 1/2 off that and you have a better than 10% correction, BUT the primary uptrend is still intact.
Doug Kass Presidnt, Seabreeze Partners Management
I disagree with the consensus - that the market is vulnerable to only a shallow correction.
However, Mr. Market is now more clearly exhibiting a new pattern. We are experiencing selling or muted reactions to the good news, whether it's in pending home sales, evidence of improvement in the German economy overnight, ISM, etc.
As someone wise once said, it's not the news; it's (at times) how the market responds to the news that should be the take from Mr. Market. From my perch, the message and strategy is getting more clear. Most investors should now consider reducing overall invested positions as the reward vs. risk is less than exceptional believe the market .
Jim LaCamp Portfolio Manager, Portfolio Focus, RBC Wealth Management
Co-Host, Opening Bell Radio Show, Biz Radio Network
No, not yet. A correction, yes. a serious correction, not now but later.. China's market has led our market and is correcting, valuations are extended, we haven't a real correction since march. A serious correction is more likely to occur next year as economic data disappoints.
Art Laffer Fmr. Reagan Economic Advisor
Chief Investment Officer, Laffer Investments
Yes, the stock market is due for a correction. It has run-up on an infusion of easy money from the Fed, but the huge increase in the monetary base has stopped and will need to be wound down. Additionally, when health care reform and cap and trade come back onto the agenda this fall, people will again realize that bad policies emanating from Washington are dragging down corporate profits.
Donald L. Luskin Chief Investment Officer, Trend Macrolytics LLC
Yes, although it depends what you mean by “serious” – since that can play out in any combination of price-decline and duration. I think we’ll have a correction of at least two months, and that we are likely to have to fall 20% from the highs made last Thursday. The 52% run-up from the March bottom was justified, because we are coming out of recession. But that news it out, and as it becomes the new consensus, it has to be questioned. We are NOT coming out of a depression, so an even greater rally than we’ve already had (such as the two in 1932 and 1933 off the Great Depression bottom) is NOT justified.
Steve Moore Sr. Economics Writer, The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board
Yes on the downside with the market falling back below 9000.
Money & Politics Columnist
YES. The giddyness over avoiding a depression is gone. Investors ahead will have to contend with a less-accomadative Fed, so-so growth and and a federal government that refuses to launch pro-growth initiatives. Ultimately, gridock is not good.
The New Republic
I don’t think we’ll see a serious correction. I do think we’ll be hovering around 9,000 for the next 6-12 month though - until it’s clear that we’re headed back to long-term sustained growth, and that the financial system isn’t going to relapse.
CEO, Patriarch Partners
I believe that the market has long chosen to discount the reality of an economy and financial system that recently flirted with the dangers of economic destruction and depression. We still remain mired in the consequences of the acts that took our economy to the precipice to include continued bank failures, a dearth of lending to small and middle market companies, rising unemployment and permanent job losses caused by a diminishing industrial base. I believe that it will take many years for a true recovery to take root that will include job growth, a robust housing market and broad increases in consumer spending.