Zelman estimates that the foreclosure timeline has doubled "due to moratoriums, modification efforts, lenders' self-serving motivations, postponements at trustee sales and logistical delays, which are all leading to a mounting pipeline. In total, foreclosures in-process are 88% higher than the year ago, led by prime non-jumbo (up 159%) and prime jumbo (up 152%) mortgages."
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithnersaid it himself today, "the foreclosure problem is going to last a long time." According to Treasury's own report, banks participating in the administration's loan modification program have only made offers to 12% of eligible borrowers. The treasury report listed, bank by bank, who was doing what, and Geithner claims, "I am quite confident that will produce much much faster modifications more quickly because institutions do not want to live with the consequences of being so far behind the curve." I'm not so sure about that, especially when no one big bank is doing any better than another.
- Geither Town Hall Tonight on CNBC...Click Here to Submit Questions
All of this adds to banking analyst Meredith Whitney's contention that home prices could fall much further than they already have. "No bank underwrote a loan with ten percent unemployment," she said on Squawk Box. "There's no doubt that hoe prices go down dramatically from here, it's just a question of when."
I believe we will see another dip in housing this fall, despite all the claims that four months of rising home prices mean we're at bottom. As Whitney notes in her own report, "seasonally, prices improved from the months of January to May in each of the last three years when home prices have been in decline."
- Click here to watch the full interview with Whitney
I've said it over and over. You can't look at month to month price comparisons. You have to look year over year. When I see a year over year improvement, I'll change my tune.
Questions? Comments? RealtyCheck@cnbc.com