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Halftime Report: What's The Market 'Tell"?

Around lunchtime stocks were trading at session lows after the declining price of oil dragged down energy shares.

The move lower in oil comes despite extreme dollar weakness, typically the two trade in opposite directions, but investors appear to be more focused on the latest inventory data which reveals less demand for gasoline.

However the bulls weren’t entirely pushed to the sidelines. The Dow Transports made sizable gains on Friday after FedEx raised its earnings forecast, citing better-than-expected international shipments.

Considering the price action of oil suggest a sluggish recovery while the action in transports would suggest growth, what's the market ‘tell'?

Instant Insights with the Fast Money traders

The weakness in this market is all about oil, explains Pete Najarian. That’s something you want to keep an eye on.

Also the bond markets may be trying to tell us something, adds Brian Kelly of Kanundrum. Bond yields are saying look for slow growth in the economy while the gains in stocks suggest more robust growth. One of them isn’t right.

However, the Vix is trading at the low end of the range, adds Scott Nations of NationShares. If we get below 23.09 on the Vix, I think it confirms the rally.

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DOLLAR PLUMMETS AGAIN

The dollar fell to a one-year low against a basket of currencies on Friday with the weakness stemming from data out of China that came in stronger than expected and prompted investors to keep shifting funds to riskier and growth-linked currencies.

The dollar dropped to a seven-month low against the yen and a one-year trough versus the New Zealand dollar. Broad selling of the greenback also lifted the euro to a fresh 2009 high.

What’s the 'tell'?

I think the action in the dollar suggests that our economy may be in trouble, speculates CNBC’s Rick Santelli. The dollar may be sending us an important message.

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FINANCIALS MIXED IN WAKE OF MACK ANNOUNCEMENT

Banks stocks were mixed in the wake of Morgan Stanley’s announced that CEO John Mack would be stepping down in early 2010. Now investors are wondering if any more shake-ups are coming?

In a separate item, Citigroup raised its price target on the stock of Morgan Stanley and said it expects the company to show modest improvement in core fixed income, currency and commodities (FICC) segment and equity trading.

Analyst Keith Horowitz raised his price target on Morgan Stanley's stock to $33 from $30 and maintained a "hold" rating.

What’s the trade?

I think John Mack's resignation was widely expected on the Street, muses Pete Najarian. That shouldn’t move the stock either way.

In the space I’d keep an eye on Goldman Sachs, counsels Brian Kelly. I think it’s a best of breed play, however I’d wait for a pullback before becoming a buyer.

I’m seeing options activity in Vornado and other REITs that suggest they may have bottomed, adds Brian Stutland of Stutland Equities.

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FAST & FURIOUS: THE KEY QUESTIONS INTO THE CLOSE

BUY BBY?Best Buy reports earnings on Tuesday before the bell, should you buy?

The stock has struggled near $40, explains Pete Najarian. I’d wait.

BUY GARMIN? Bank of America upgraded Garmin now nearing a 52-week high; should you buy?

I like the stock but I don’t absolutely love it, says Brian Stutland.

BUY CASINOS? Las Vegas Sands received an upgrade today following Wynn's upgrade yesterday; should you buy the casinos?

I think both LVS and Wynn are heading higher, says Brian Kelly.

BUY INTC?Intel traded flat on the day despite being upgraded today, is this a buying opportunity?

I like it right here, reveals Brian Kelly.

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TRADE TO GO: BIG BANK PLAY

I’d put JPMorgan on your radar, counsels Pete Najarian. Master Trust data as well as the Barclay’s conference could both be bullish catalysts for this stock next week.


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Trader disclosure: On Sept. 11, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders: Najarian Is Long Apple (AAPL): Najarian Is Long Bank of America Stock, Short Calls: Najarian Is Long Citigroup Calls: Najarian Is Long Discovery Financials Calls: Najarian Is Long (ENER):Najarian Is Long (FCX), Short Calls:Najarian Is Long (JPM) Stock, And Puts; Najarian Is Long (JOYG) Stock, Short Calls; Najarian Is Long (MS) Stock, Short Calls; Najarian Is Long (MSFT) Stock, Short Calls; Najarian Is Long (PALM) Calls; Najarian Is Long (RIMM) Calls; Najarian Is Long (TEVA) Stock; Najarian Is Long (V) Stock, Short Puts & Calls; Najarian Is Long (WFC) Long Puts, Short Stock; Najarian Is Long (YHOO) Calls; Terranova Is Short (CCL); Terranova Is Long Gold Futures; Seymour Owns (AA); Seymour Owns (AAPL); Seymour Owns (BAC); Seymour Owns (BX); Seymour Owns (F); Seymour Owns (RIMM); Seymour Owns (SBUX)

For Scott Nations:
Nations is long call verticle spread on (LVS)

For Mark Schoenebaum
Deutsche Bank Owns (AMGN)
(AMGN) Is An Investment Banking Client of Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank Owns (BIIB)
(DBSI) Is An Investment Banking Client of Deutsche Bank
(GENZ) Is An Investment Banking Client of Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank Has Received Compensation from (GENZ)
Deutsche Bank Owns (GILD)
Deutsche Bank Owns (ACOR)
(ACOR) Is An Investment Banking Client of Deutsche Bank

For Brad Hintz
(MS) Has been a Client of Bernstein in the Past 12 Months
Hintz Owns (MS)
Mr. Hintz received a one time payment of 8,974 from (MS) in 2009
An affiliate of Bernstein received compensation for non-investment banking-securities related services from the following companies MS



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