The European Union said Monday that the recession in the euro-zone and EU will likely have ended in the third quarter with the resumption of modest economic growth.
In an update to its May forecast, the EU cast doubt on strength of the upswing, saying it won't change its prediction for the euro-zone and EU economies to shrink by 4 percent this year.
The EU executive sees both the euro-zone and the EU growing 0.2 percent in the third quarter compared to the three months before, and improving just 0.1 percent in the final quarter of the year.
Official statistics for the third quarter have not yet been published and the EU's figure is an estimate based on growth in the seven largest EU nations.
The European Commission said it was not changing its forecast for the year because the economy fared worse at the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009.
It warned that "uncertainty remains rife" on how strong the recovery will be.