CNBC Guest Blog
- Yoshikami: Four Things You Need to Know About Gold Now
- Steinbock: The Euro Zone Endgame Begins
- Laouchez: Leadership in Financial Services — Missing in Action?
- Kuntz: Finding Opportunity in Emerging Markets
- Busch: How to Trade the Euro on an Outside Reversal
- Dunkelberg: The Real Banking Crisis - They're Too Big to Manage
- Greek Exit a Worse Mistake Than Adoption of Euro
- Tamminen: Waste Not, Want Not
- Morici: The Eclipse of American Banking
- Will This Decade Be More Grim Than the 1930s?
MOST SHARED
- Greece Pours $22.6 Billion Into Four Biggest Banks
- Spain's Borrowing Costs Near Danger Level: Bailout Next?
- Will the Euro Misery Give Rise to Another Soros?
- Greece to Leave Euro Zone on June 18: Wealth Manager
- 5 Spots Where the Dollar Buys a Great Vacation
- European Firms Plan for Greek Unrest and Euro Exit
- Public Pensions Faulted for Bets on Rosy Returns
- Winemaking Lures the Wealthy, But Not With Profits
- Hostage to Headlines
- Citigroup Lost $20 Million on Facebook IPO Trades
- A New Look at the ‘New Poor’
- Six Pack: Beer Buzz of the Week
- Greek Exit Could Trigger 50% Fall in Euro Stocks: Analyst
- Under Pressure, FHA Skews to Wealthier Home Buyers
- Big Stock Upside for Hudson City Deal: Analyst
- 5 High-Yield Stocks Ready to Boost Dividends
- Yoshikami: Four Things You Need to Know About Gold Now
- Steinbock: The Euro Zone Endgame Begins
- Option Bulls Take Another Shot on Idenix
- Spain's Debt Costs Near Danger Level: Is Bailout Next?
- US Markets Will Be Watching Europe—And Jobs Report
- European Companies Plan for Greek Unrest and Euro Exit
- Public Pensions Faulted for Bets on Rosy Returns
- Greece to Leave Euro Zone on June 18: Wealth Manager
- Italy 2-Year Borrowing Costs at Peak Since December
- Euro Bond Wins Supporters, but Details Remain Vague
- German, UK Bond Yields Will Go Even Lower
- Labor Board Member Resigns Over Leak to GOP Allies
RSS FEED
Schork Oil Outlook: Nat Gas Is the Yugo of the Energy Complex
Text Size 
Stephen Schork
Editor of
"The Schork Report"
Keeping in mind what Lord Keynes said a long time ago… the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent…we stated our fundamental case against the gas bulls yesterday.
Here at The Schork Report we stand by our words - and our numbers.
No doubt, gas is cheap.
But, if there is no value, than cheap, in and of itself, is not a reason to own something.
On CNBC.com Now - These Auto Slideshows:
Back in the 1980s the Yugo GV was cheap also. The car was cheap for a reason. Its Soviet-bloc engineering (see today’s G.M.) exuded the feeling it was assembled at gunpoint. Gas today is cheap for a reason.
There is too damn much of it.
Over the weekend Alan Lammey at Natural Gas Week noted that ANR Storage was reported as 97.4% full, Sonat Storage was 97.3% full. Meanwhile, Texas Gas Storage was 96% full, Transco Storage was 83.3% full and Tennessee was estimated at 89% full… and it is only the middle of September for crying out loud. Storage is nearing capacity; early estimates peg last week’s injection around 80 Bcf. With limited shoulder month and soft industrial demand, where is excess production going to go if it cannot go into the ground in October? It has to wind up on the spot market. That is obviously not a reason to own October NYMEX gas. What we are seeing here is a technical bubble. For example, the underlying to the NYMEX contract at the Henry Hub lost 11 cents yesterday, while Transco Z6 inched up a penny to 3.16.
Go that? NYMEX Henry Hub gas futures closed at 3.297 yesterday afternoon, while the physical gas for delivery into New York City traded around 14 cents lower yesterday morning. NYMEX gas is a bubble… but be careful, Lord Keynes has a point.
_________________________
Stephen Schork is the Editor of, "The Schork Report" and has more than 17 years experience in physical commodity and derivatives trading, risk systems modeling and structured commodity finance.
Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes
