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With the White House focussed on the trade imbalance between the US and China should you be focussed on trades that benefit from a weaker dollar?
Although conversations about the dollar [UUP
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] are not on the G20 summit’s agenda officially, one of the administration’s biggest propositions could put it front and center, nonetheless.
Washington is proposing a plan that involves shrinking surpluses in big exporting countries such as China and boosting savings in debt-laden nations that include the United States.
“The imbalance is going to be the biggest thing on the agenda,” muses former Secretary Of Commerce and CNBC Contributor Carlos Gutierrez. “And it has the potential of really moving markets.”
Though the details of the plan are not entirely clear, “it would involve measures such as the US cutting its deficits and saving more, China reducing its reliance on exports and Europe making structural changes to boost business investment," says Societe Generale.
If the plan gathers steam, expect it to pressure the greenback as China and other Asian countries move to push their currencies higher, writes the Wall Street Journal.
Gutiereez agrees. “It will mostly spell a devaluation of the dollar,” he tells Fast Money.
Is there a trade?
Although investors should position for a weaker dollar long term, traders should do just the opposite, counsels Tim Seymour. I think the dollar gets stronger at least over the next few days. I'm a seller of the British pound [FXB
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] and a seller of the Canadian dollar [FXC
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], he says.
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Of course what’s mentioned above is just one of many issues under discussion. Following is a short synopsis of some others that could have direct impact on investors.
-Limits on compensation for financial executives. Experts consider this the most likely topic for action with France's President Nicolas Sarkozy threatening to walk out if nothing concrete happens to contain banker bonuses.
-Tighter fiscal controls on banks, in order to force higher cash reserves to buffer downturns.
-Easing out of governments' stimulus spending.
Although there’s not way to really quantify if the G20 is a success, market mavens are watching for a few things. They say anything talk of a slow and steady withdrawal of stimulus spending is a positive because it won’t roil market. And they’re also looking for accords on regulating over-the-counter derivatives.
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Trader disclosure: On Sept. 24th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (BTU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE); Terranova Owns (F); Terranova Owns (F) Calls And (F) Puts; Terranova Works For (VRTS); Finerman's Firm Owns (BAC) Preferred Shares, Finerman Owns (BAC) Preferred Shares And Owns (BAC); Finerman's Firm Owns (WFC) Preferred Shares And Is Short (WFC); Finerman Owns (WFC) Preferred Shares; Finerman Owns (RIG); Finerman's Firm Owns (MSFT), (NOK), (PBR), (WMT), (RIG), (TGT); Finerman's Firm Is Short (IJR), (MDY), (SPY), (IWM), (USO); Seymour Owns (AAPL), (AA), (BX), (EEM), (RIMM), (BAC), (RIG), (SBUX), (FXI)
For Steve Cortes
Cortes Is Short (FXI)
Cortes Owns S&P Futures
Cortes Is Short The Euro
Cortes Is Short British Pound
For Mark Mahaney
Citigroup Has Received Compensation From (GOOG)
(GOOG) Has Been A Client of Citigroup In Past 12 Months
Citi Is A Market Maker In Shares Of (GOOG)
Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes