Consumer Nation
- Holiday Tipping: Who And How Much
- Deep Discounts Should Make It a Very Tech-y Holiday
- This Holiday Season—Little Joy For Those Hard Hit
- Victoria's Secret Hopes to Rekindle Desire for Lingerie
- Consumers Feel Guilty: JC Penney CEO
- Mixed Signals Come From Retail Sector as Holidays Draw Near
- This Year's Biggest Thanksgiving Leftover: Cash
- Dollar General Trades Higher After Its IPO
- Sports Betting Web Site Sets Odds on Black Friday
- What's The Forecast from Retailers? Proceed With Caution
RSS FEED
MOST SHARED
- The 'Real' Jobless Rate: 17.5% Of Workers Are Unemployed
- Existing-Home Sales Jump To Highest Level in 2-1/2 Years
- Start-Up Proves Everything Really Is Better With Bacon
- Wave of Debt Payments Facing US Government
- Wall Street Finds Profits by Reducing Mortgages
- Cadbury Hits New High as Bidders Circle
- China Asks Its Banks to Slow Down
- MBS Buyback Program Should be Extended: Fed's Bullard
- Expect a 'Square Root-Shaped' Recovery: Chief Investor
- Madoff—The Holiday Drink
- HP to Feed on Enterprise Spending Next Year: Tech Analyst
- Busch: Markets Smell a Country Rat
- Schork Oil Outlook: Mission Impossible For The Bears?
- S&P Stocks Trading at New 52-Week Highs
- Losey: Asset Allocation At Retirement
- Farrell: Obama Hectored, Ignored and Restricted?
- Don't Dwell on Investment Mistakes; Move on, Like Buffett
- Existing-Home Sales Jump to 2-1/2 Year High
- Wave of Debt Payments Facing US Government
- US Job Losses to Bottom out Next Quarter: NABE
- Obama Jobs Forum May Be More Political Than Practical
- Late Payments on Credit Cards Drop in Third Quarter
- Suze Orman’s 'A Healthier, Wealthier You'
- Latest Holiday Drinks: The Madoff...and the TARPatini
- Madoff Trustee, Law Firm Submit $22.1 Million Bill
- JPMorgan's Dimon Could Succeed Geithner: Report
Text Size 
News Editor
Folks are starting to speculate about whether September chain-store sales can be seen as a barometer of how Christmas holiday sales will ring in.
 |
But there's another gauge that may influence the actual monthly retail sales reports: the thermometer.
Last month was the coolest on record in three years, and the autumn chill in the air likely helped spur demand for seasonal items such as apparel, according to research from Atmospheric and Environmental Research, a Boston-based firm that analyzes the impact of climate change on business operations.
September tends to be a funny month for retailers. Back-to-school buying is usually completed, and there aren't any major holidays or other events to get consumers in the buying mood. However, the chilly temperatures may have forced consumers out to the store to buy new jackets and sweaters.
"So far, from a retailer perspective, Mother Nature is doing her job," says Paul Walsh, a senior vice president at AER.
AER estimates 25 percent of the year-over-year retail sales change in September is driven by the impact of temperature.
For some retailers, the impact is much larger. For example, about 75 percent of the change in September sales over the past few years at Kohl's [KSS
Loading...
()
] has been linked to weather, according to AER's research.
That number is tied to a number of factors, including the mix of products the retailer sells as well as the consumer, who shops there.
At high-end department store JW Nordstrom [JWN
Loading...
()
], about 39 percent of the year-over-year change in sales is tied to weather.
In addition to Kohl's, the companies with the most to gain in September as the mercury drops include: TJX [TJX
Loading...
()
], Children's Place [PLCE
Loading...
()
], Abercrombie & Fitch [
Loading...
()
], and Macy's [
Loading...
()
], according to AER.
What's more, it looks like retailers have the wind at their backs, so to speak. The seasonally brisk temperatures have continued so far in October and are likely to help maintain weather-driven sales in October, AER says.
But the stronger weather-driven sales in September and October could short-change sales in the November and December time-frame, Walsh says.
The group is forecasting that winter will be warmer this year than a year ago. That relative warmth may be favorable for store traffic, but it might not inspire sales of seasonal items, according to Walsh.
September Same-Store Sales Forecasts |
| Retailers | September 2008 Actual Sales | September 2009 Estimated Sales |
| Costco Wholesale | 7.0% | (0.07%) |
| BJ's Wholesale | 10.4% | (1.0%) |
| Target | (3.0%) | (2.0%) |
| JC Penney | (-12.4%) | (-3.5%) |
| Kohl's | (-5.5%) | 0.1% |
| Dillards | (12.0%) | (9.8%) |
| JW Nordstrom | (9.6%) | (6.0%) |
| Saks | (10.9%) | (11.1%) |
| Macy's | (4.6%) | Not reported |
| Gap | (11%) | (0.4%) |
| TJX | (1.0%) | 4.1% |
| Limited | (6.0%) | (2.4%) |
| Abercrombie | (14.0%) | (21.0%) |
| Children's Place | 0.0% | (1.3%) |
| Aeropostale | 5.0% | 12.4% |
| Hot Topic | (1.8%) | (6.3%) |
| The Buckle | 19.7% | 5.8% |
| Zumiez | (9.0%) | (1.0%) |
Source: Thomson Reuters; Figures in parenthesis are losses. |
Overall, retail industry analysts are feeling more optimistic about September same-store sales results, due out Thursday morning. But some analysts warn the good vibes may be short-lived.
UBS analyst Roxanne Meyer says retailers will be helped by broad-based improvement given Labor Day's shift and easier comparisons, especially among more discretionary names.
"Given recent data on consumer confidence and unemployment, we don't view September as necessarily indicative of a go-forward run rate and could provide a false sense of optimism near-term," Meyer says.
Meyer expects Aeropostale [ARO
Loading...
()
] and Gap's [GPS
Loading...
()
] Old Navy unit to be stand-outs in the specialty retail space.
More from CNBC.com:
- Sales Improve - But Are They Enough?
- Price Wars in Toylands: Target To Match Wal-Mart's Cuts
- PepsiCo Names Foss to Head Bottling Operations
- Slideshow: Hot Holiday Toys
Questions? Comments? Email us at
Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes