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Analysts are calling for an average decline of 1 percent in sales at stores open at least a year, according to Thomson Reuters data.
Though that’s a signal of weakness, such a decline would be the smallest monthly drop since September 2008.
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For more than a year, value has been the key proposition for shoppers, and that is unlikely to change soon.
"Anywhere that people feel like they're getting a perceived bargain, that's where people are going to be attracted right now," says Steve Ferrara, a partner in BDO Seidman's retail and consumer product practice.
Discounters TJMaxx [TJX
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] and Ross Stores [ROST
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] are among the few retailers expected to post increases. Analysts expect high-end stores such as Saks [SKS
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] and Nordstrom [JWN
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] to report deeper declines than chains with more of a value message, such as Kohl's [KSS
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]and JC Penney [JCP
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].
"People are just pulling back in general," adds Patty Edwards of Storehouse Partners and a Fast Money friend.
Once again, analysts expect Abercrombie & Fitch [ANF
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] to post the steepest drop of any retailer, at 19.9 percent. However, there are also bright spots expected with Aeropostale [ARO
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] and Gymboree [GYMB
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] likely to profit from back-to-school sales, according to FBR Capital Markets analyst Adrienne Tennant.
What’s the retail trade?
One of my top picks is Macy’s [M
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] says Citi retail analyst Deborah Weinswig. They’ve taken a localized approach trying to put the right products into the right stores.
And off-mall retailers are continuing to do better than their mall counterparts. I'd look at Target [TGT
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] and Kohls [KSS
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] .
In the space I like Aeropostale, Gap [GPS
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] and The Buckle [BKE
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], adds Joe Terranova.
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Trader disclosure: On October 7, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE), BTU); Terranova Owns (NOV), (MOS), (JPM); Terranova Is Short (CCL); Terranova Is Short (WYNN); Terranova Is Short (GRMN); Terranova Owns Dec. Gold Futures; Terranova Owns March Sugar Futures; Terranova Owns Crude Futures; Seymour Owns (ACI), (AA), (STD), (BX), (BAC), (SBUX); Seymour Owns (RTP); Najarian Owns (C) Calls; Najarian Owns (BRCD) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (DFS) Calls; Najarian Owns (DELL) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (GE) Calls; Najarian Owns (JPM) & Short (JPM) Calls; Najarian Owns (HMY) Calls Spread; Najarian Owns (LAZ) & Short (LAZ) Calls & Long (LAZ) Put Spread; Najarian Owns (MSFT) And Is Short (MSFT) Calls; Najarian Owns (MYL) Calls; Najarian Owns (PLCM) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (TEVA); Najarian Owns (ORCL) & Short (ORCL) Calls; Najarian Owns (RIMM) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (WFC) Puts; Najarian Owns (YHOO) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (DFS) Calls
For Deborah Weinswig:
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. acted as a joint bookrunner on the announced debt offering of (WMT)
Citi Owns (TGT)
Citi Owns (SKS)
Citi Co-Managed An Offering Of Securities of (WMT)
Citi Has Received Compensation From (M)
Citi Has Received Compensation From (TGT)
Citi Has Received Compensation From (WMT)
Citi Has Received Compensation From SKS)
Citi Expects To Receive Compesation From (WMT)
Citi Has Received Compensation From (COST)
Citi Has Received Compesation from (HD)
CNBC.com with wires
Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes