Will Earnings Season Reignite Bull Market?
Patterns are emerging that also surfaced ahead of the last two earnings seasons. Will results send bulls off to the races for a third time?
Fast Money series producer wrote about this trend on Wednesday in his blog Behind The Money.
He says, since the stock market hit a 12-year low in March, the two earnings seasons since that followed lit a fire under share prices -- as the results blew away expectations -- and vindicated the bulls looking for signs that things were getting better or at the very least, less bad.
The S&P 500 jumped 12 percent from when Alcoa (the first Dow Average member to report) posted results in early July to five
weeks later when Hewlett-Packard (the last Dow member to report) put out its release. In the prior earnings season from early April to late May, the S&P 500 jumped 9 percent.
What's more, before Alcoa kicked off the two prior earning seasons, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, known as the 'fear gauge', spiked higher as rally-doubters bought more puts than calls in the options pits to protect themselves going into the profit reports.
That bearishness turned into fuel for the rally as the reports began to validate the bull case.
We're seeing a similar pattern unfold right now with stocks stalling for two weeks and the VIX coming off a recent spike.
Will these earnings reports once again fuel the fire?
Both Joe Terranova and Tim Seymour are optimistic. "I think this is the last chance for underperforming money managers to catch up," says the Liquidator. "Guys that are sweating on the sidelines because they’ve missed gains could stampede back into this market," adds the Ambassador.
However, the bar is certainly higher this time as analysts have started to believe -- before seeing the earnings reports -- upgrading many stocks the last two weeks.
Also, while the 'fear gauge' did jump last week, it is still WAY down from levels six months ago so there are not as many bears left to turn into bulls this time and fuel the rally.
What do you think? We want to know!
*John Melloy and Lee Brodie contributed to this report.
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Trader disclosure: On October 7, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE), BTU); Terranova Owns (NOV), (MOS), (JPM); Terranova Is Short (CCL); Terranova Is Short (WYNN); Terranova Is Short (GRMN); Terranova Owns Dec. Gold Futures; Terranova Owns March Sugar Futures; Terranova Owns Crude Futures; Seymour Owns (ACI), (AA), (STD), (BX), (BAC), (SBUX); Seymour Owns (RTP); Najarian Owns (C) Calls; Najarian Owns (BRCD) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (DFS) Calls; Najarian Owns (DELL) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (GE) Calls; Najarian Owns (JPM) & Short (JPM) Calls; Najarian Owns (HMY) Calls Spread; Najarian Owns (LAZ) & Short (LAZ) Calls & Long (LAZ) Put Spread; Najarian Owns (MSFT) And Is Short (MSFT) Calls; Najarian Owns (MYL) Calls; Najarian Owns (PLCM) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (TEVA); Najarian Owns (ORCL) & Short (ORCL) Calls; Najarian Owns (RIMM) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (WFC) Puts; Najarian Owns (YHOO) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (DFS) Calls
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