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Fast Money HomeFast Money Rapid RecapAbout Fast MoneyFast Money BiosFast Money Web ExtraFast Money Disclaimer
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Oct.12
12:24 PM ET
Monday, 12 Oct 2009
BEHIND THE MONEY: J&J Leads List of Likely Earnings Season Beats

Beyond the money

Going by historical precedent and recent chart strength, Johnson & Johnson [JNJ  Loading...      ()   ] leads a list of companies most likely to beat Street estimates this earnings season and subsequently trade higher. Johnson & Johnson reports tomorrow morning.

Starting with a list of "stocks that beat the most" from Birninyi Associates, the sharp research firm run by legendary trader Laszlo Birinyi, and then cross checking this with a list of stocks "whose charts suggest earnings will be good" from Carter Worth, Oppenheimer Asset Management chief market technician and frequent Fast Money guest, J&J came back as a match.

Johnson & Johnson beats 96 percent of the time, according to Birinyi, a firm you may want to listen to. Among the companies also on its list was Black & Decker [BDK  Loading...      ()   ], which is leading the market higher today after pre-announcing that they would exceed third-quarter's earnings estimates.

(JNJ)
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Meanwhile, Johnson & Johnson is breaking out above past resistance at $61, likely why Worth put it on his 'beat' list. "There are - history has shown - certain patterns in day-to-day trading that suggest money in aggregate is moving into a name in anticipation of good news," wrote Worth, in his note to clients today.

Another one of my favorite research firms, Bespoke Investment Group, ran the numbers and found a list of companies that have beaten earnings estimates 100 percent of the time the last eight quarters. Two small caps, CyberSource [CYBS  Loading...      ()   ] and PetMed Express  [PETS  Loading...      ()   ], make Bespoke's screen and Worth's list of technical strength.

CyberSource, an electronic payment processor, is up more than 50 percent this year before its report expected next week.

(CYBS)
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PetMed, a mail order pet pharmacy, is breaking out recently, up 35 percent the last 3 months before its report on Oct. 19.

(PETS)
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The profit parlor game can be risky so be careful to hedge your trades, but if recent and long-term history is any guide, these stocks may be winners.

______________________________________________________


John Melloy is the Senior Editorial Producer for Fast Money. Before joining CNBC, he was an editor for Bloomberg News, overseeing the U.S. Stock Market coverage team.



______________________________________________________
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Trader disclosure: On October 12, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (BTU), (MSFT), (NUE); Seymour Owns (AAPL), (BAC), (F), (MGM), (MSFT), (BX), (POT); Seymour Owns Shares Of Gazprom; Finerman's Firm Owns (BAC), (BAC) Calls, (BAC) Call Spreads, (BAC) Preferred; Finerman Owns (BAC), (BAC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Owns (CSCO), (MSFT), (TGT), (WMT), (YUM), (PLCE); Finerman's Firm Owns (WLP) Calls; Finerman's Firm Owns (UNH) Calls; Finerman's Firm Is Short (IJR), (MDY), (IWM), (UNG), (USO); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (WFC) Preferred; Terranova Owns (JPM), (NOV); Terranova Is Short (GRMN); Terranova Is Short (CCL); Terranova Owns Dec. 2009 Gold Futures; Terranova Owns Dec. 2009 Crude Oil Futures; Terranova Owns Dec. 2010 Crude Oil Futures; Terranova Works For (VRTS)

For JoeTerranova:
Terranova Is Chief Market Strategist Of Virtus Investment Partners, Ltd.
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLY)
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For Craig Berger
FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (ONNN)
FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (INTC)
FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (BRCM)
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FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (MRVL)
FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (LLTC)
FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (MXIM)
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FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (SLAB)
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FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (QCOM)
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For David Trone
FPK Or Affiliates May Seek Investment Banking Compensation From (GS) In Next 3 Months
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FPK Or Affiliates May Seek Investment Banking Compensation From (JPM) In Next 3 Months
FPK Or Affiliates May Seek Investment Banking Compensation From (C) In Next 3 Months

For Christa Quarles
Thomas Weisel Partners LLC Or Affiliate Has Managed Or Co-Managed A Public Offering Of Securities For (GOOG) In Past 12 Months
Thomas Weisel Partners LLC Or Affiliate Has Received Investment Banking Compensation From (GOOG) In Past 12 Months
Thomas Weisel Partners LLC Or Affiliate Expects To Receive/Seek Investment Banking Comensation From (GOOG) In Next 3 Months
Thomas Weisel Partners LLC Or Affiliate Has Provided Or Is Providing Investment Banking Services To (GOOG) In Past 12 Months
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Thomas Weisel Partners LLC Or Affiliate Has Provided Or Is Providing Non-Investment Banking, Securities-Related Services To And/Or Has Agreed To Provide Services Or Has A Client Relationship With (YHOO)


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