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] reports earnings on Thursday after the bell. Amid all the data they’ll release, do you know what really matters?Coming off its first rough patch in the firm’s five-year history as a public company, Google appears to be regaining the luster that propelled its stock price to nearly $750 in 2007 before falling below $250 late last year. The shares hit a new 52-week high of $525.76 in Monday's trading.
Positive sentiment appears to be largely based on the premise Google will be among the first major beneficiaries of a recovery in the depressed ad market.
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Although it has expanded into computer-software applications and telecommunications, Google still makes most of its money from online ads that are tied to search requests and other content on Web pages.
Also, the weaker dollar is expected to boost Google's earnings because more than half of its revenue comes from outside the United States.
Eric Schmidt, Google's CEO, has also fanned the optimism with comments indicating that he believes advertisers are ready to increase their spending on his company's marketing network — the largest and most lucrative on the Internet.
In a telling sign that he believes the company has reached a turning point, Schmidt told reporters earlier this month that Google will likely ramp up its hiring efforts again. Google ended June with just under 20,000 workers, up from about 2,300 employees when it went public in August 2004.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect Google to earn $5.40 per share on revenue of $4.23 billion. The estimates exclude Google's expenses for employee-stock compensation, unusual charges and the revenue that the company pays its advertising partners.
Out of all this, what should you be watching?
Going forward you need to watch the impact from mobile smartphones as well as profitability out of YouTube and real expansion in margins, says Citi analyst Mark Mahaney. That’s what will take shares higher. I don’t think we see it on Thursday although I do expect to see it over the next year.
What's the trade?
I wouldn’t be betting on a big upside move post earnings, says Mahaney.
I think if you’ve missed Google’s move, you should wait, echoes Guy Adami. Don’t jump in on Thursday.
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Trader disclosure: On October 14, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (BTU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (NUE): Grasso Owns (AAPL), (ABK), (ASTM), (BAC), (C), (COST), (CSCO), (PFE), (PRST), (V), (WMT): Seymour Owns (AAPL), (BAC), (BHP), (EEM), (FXI), (INTC), (TTM), (LVS): Pete Najarian Owns (BX) Calls: Pete Najarian Owns (DELL) Call Spread: Pete Najarian Owns (HOG) Nov. Call, Is Short (HOG) Oct. Calls: Pete Najarian Owns (XLF) Calls: Pete Najarian Owns (YHOO) Call Spread: Pete Najarian Owns (LAZ), (LAZ) Puts: Pete Najarian Owns (C) Calls
For Steve Grasso
Stuart Frankel And/Or Its Partners Own (AIZ)
Stuart Frankel And/Or Its Partners Own (CMCSK)
Stuart Frankel And/Or Its Partners Own (CUBA)
Stuart Frankel And/Or Its Partners Own (GERN)
Stuart Frankel And/Or Its Partners Own (HSPO)
Stuart Frankel And/Or Its Partners Own (MSFT)
Stuart Frankel And/Or Its Partners Own (NWS.A)
Stuart Frankel And/Or Its Partners Own (NXST)
Stuart Frankel And/Or Its Partners Own (NYX)
Stuart Frankel And/Or Its Partners Own (PDE)
Stuart Frankel And/Or Its Partners Own (PRST)
Stuart Frankel And/Or Its Partners Own (RDC)
Stuart Frankel And/Or Its Partners Own (ROK)
Stuart Frankel And/Or Its Partners Own (TLM)
Stuart Frankel And/Or Its Partners Own (XOM)
Stuart Frankel And/Or Its Partners Own (XRX)
Stuart Frankel And/Or Its Partners Own (SDS)
Stuart Frankel And/Or Its Partners Is Short (QQQQ)
Stuart Frankel And/Or Its Partners Is Short (CL)
For Jon Najarian:
Jon Najarian Owns (GS)
Jon Najarian Owns (BAC) Preferreds
For Mark Mahaney
Citigroup Global Markets Or Affiliates Owns 1% Or More Of (YHOO), (PCLN), (NFLX), (AKAM)
Citigroup Global Markets Or Affiliate Received Non-Investment Banking
Compensation From (GOOG), (YHOO), (EXPE) In Past 12 Months
(GOOG), (YHOO), (EXPE) Are Or In Past 12 Months Were Clients Of Citigroup
Global Markets (Non-Investment Banking, Non-Securities Related)
(GOOG), (YHOO) Are Or In Past 12 Months Were Clients Of Citigroup Global Markets (Non-Investment-Banking, Securities-Related)
Citigroup Global Markets Is A Market Maker In (OPEN), (GOOG), (YHOO), (AMZN), (PCLN), (NFLX), (EXPE), (AKAM)
Citigroup Global Markets And/Or Affiliates Has A Significant Financial Interest In Relation To (GOOG), (YHOO), (EXPE)
Citigroup Global Markets Or Affiliates Owns 2% Or More Of (YHOO)
For Louis Navellier
Funds Managed By Navellier Own (IBM)
Funds Managed By Navellier Own (VMI)
CNBC.com with wires
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