Dow 10K: Celebrating 10 Years of 0% Return
Congratulations investors. The Dow has hit 10,000 on October 14th, 2009. You now have made officially 0 percent return if you invested in this index when the Dow first hit this magical level in 1999.
Time to celebrate for sure!
To be fair, the current markets (and economy) have certainly shown signs of resilience which flies in the face of those who have consistently predicted doom and explosion even when evidence of a rebound became more clear. But does it matter really if the Dow is at 10,000?
Jim Rogers says the Dow could go to 20,000 but it wouldn't matter if the US dollar was worth far less. And if you think about recent trends in US dollar weakness and the growing chorus of echoes suggesting the dollar should be a secondary currency, it does make some sense that symbolic index numbers are a bit meaningless.
Many investors (including myself) think that while Dow and S&P numbers do matter, other indexes may matter more in the future. What about Shanghai 3000/4000/5000 or the Rogers International Commodity Index 3000/4000/5000? Take your pick but the point is this; it's all not about the United States anymore. Globalization isn't going away
We have consistently argued that the United States is not irrelevant and will not be anytime in the near future. Regardless of what the naysayers say, the US economy still makes up a huge part of the overall global growth story.
So, as markets recover and the resilient US economy shows it's not quite done yet, celebrate small victories like Dow 10,000. And it will be a well-deserved party in the future as well if you are adopting a truly a global investment strategy; one that invests in US markets as well as Europe, Latin America, Asia, and around the globe.
And in case anyone needed a reminder, mid-to long-term time horizons do matter. Six months ago, when the Dow was at 6,500, gloomy pundits weresaying that there was no chance that the market would recover.
And 60 percent upside later, they are now saying there's no chance the market can hold on to gains. We shall see, but the bottom line is short-term guesses are just that: stabs in the financial dark. The longer you hold on to assets with a strategic long-term plan, the better chance you have to win in today's investment environment.
So three cheers for Dow 10,000, While the world economy certainly has not regained full strength it does appear that some normalcy is beginning to emerge. Dow 10,000 is merely a US signpost along a recovering global investment road.
And with volumes of negativity surrounding us every day, why not celebrate Dow 10,000. Small victories matter as well.
Michael A. Yoshikami, Ph.D., CFP®, is Founder, President, and Chief Investment Strategist of YCMNET Advisors, Inc., a registered investment advisory firm (www.ycmnet.com). He oversees all investment and research activities of YCMNET. He is a respected lecturer speaking frequently on market issues, tactical asset allocation, and investment strategy. Michael and YCMNET were ranked as one of the top investment 100 advisors in the United States for 2009 by Barrons. He appears regularly on CNBC and CNBC Asia and can be reached directly at email@example.com.