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Current DateTime: 12:31:46 26 Nov 2009
LinksList Documentid: 30111251
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S&P 500 Earnings Leaderboard: Biggest Surprises Season to Date
Published: Monday, 19 Oct 2009 | 7:37 AM ET
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By: Ariel Nelson
Director of Market Data & Content Services

As of this past Friday, just over 10% of the S&P 500 companies had reported earnings. This week we will see roughly 30% more of the S&P report.

Here's how things stand so far:

  • Companies Exceeding Estimates: 79%
  • Companies Matching Estimates: 11%
  • Companies Falling Below Estimates: 10%

Compared to the start of last earnings season, the breakdown has shifted with a significantly larger increase in companies beating vs. missing estimates.  At the same point last quarter, ~20% of the companies reporting had missed EPS estimates and just over 70% had beaten estimates.  The trend is extending from Q1, when only 60% had beaten estimates at this stage of the season.

Monsanto [MON  Loading...      ()   ] has had the biggest percent surprise to the upside followed by Jabil Circuit [JBL  Loading...      ()   ] and National Semiconductor [NSM  Loading...      ()   ].  In absolute dollars, financials sit atop the leaderboard.  After Citigroup's [C  Loading...      ()   ] surprise of over $1.3 billion, JP Morgan Chase [JPM  Loading...      ()   ] and Goldman Sachs [GS  Loading...      ()   ] follow with ~$1.2 billion and ~$500 million surprises.   

  Earnings Leaderboard - Best Performers (as of 10/16)
CompanySymbolSectorDateEPS Est.Actual%Chg
MonsantoMONMaterials10/7/20090.010.02100%
Jabil CircuitJBLTech9/29/20090.080.16100%
National SemiconductorNSMTech9/10/20090.070.1386%
JP Morgan ChaseJPMFinancials10/14/20090.520.8258%
Soutwest AirlinesLUVIndustrials10/15/20090.020.0350%

On the downside, Harley Davidson [HOG  Loading...      ()   ] leads the losers, reporting a -48% miss.  In absolute dollars, Bank of America leads with its $433 million negative surprise. 

  Earnings Leaderboard - Biggest Losers (as of 10/16)
CompanySymbolSectorRpt DateEPS Est.Actual%Chg
Harley DavidsonHOGCons Disc10/15/20090.210.11-48%
Best BuyBBYCons Disc9/15/20090.420.37-12%
FastenalFASTIndustrials10/12/20090.330.32-3%

Many companies have improved their earnings by cutting costs.  Investors are looking for topline growth as a sign that the economy has indeed turned the corner.  Continue on to the next page to see the biggest revenue surprises to date as well.

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