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Many U.S. regional banks, including Fifth Third Bancorp and SunTrust Banks Inc, may not show a profit until 2011, veteran banking analyst Richard Bove said, and downgraded both the stocks to "sell" from "neutral."
"I think that 2010 is going to be a tough year for the (banking) industry and that these stocks do not have built in to their prices this potential or the likelihood that Congress will pass punitive legislation," the Rochdale Securities' analyst wrote in a note to clients.
U.S. Bancorp [USB
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] appears to be particularly vulnerable if U.S. lawmakers pass a financial reform package that will definitely harm the industry's profits, Bove said and downgraded the Minneapolis-based bank to "neutral" from "buy."
Congress is wrestling with regulatory reforms aimed at avoiding a repeat of the crisis that helped push the U.S. economy into its deepest recession since the 1930s.
U.S. President Barack Obama has pushed lawmakers to wrap up their efforts by year-end, but the process is likely to drag into next year as Congress wrangles over details.
Analyst Bove has repeatedly emphasised that government moves to raise capital requirements for banks and restrict use of derivatives, among others, are aimed at reducing the profit making capability of banks.
As a result, investors may now adopt a "show me" attitude, and banks would need to give some indication that they can be profitable, and be profitable in a reasonable period of time, Bove said.
"I am no longer willing to buy bank stocks because their outlook two years from now is better. There must be some other driver," Bove said.
Analyst Bove revised his price targets and outlook for Fifth Third Bancorp [FITB
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], U.S. Bancorp and SunTrust Bank Inc [STI
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