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If you watch Fast Money regularly or you read The Street, you’re familiar with Kass. He’s a widely respected strategist who called the stock market bottom back in March.
And you might also remember that back in March Kass forecast 1070 on the S&P, -- a level we reached last week! (Not bad if you’re looking for an indication of how accurate he is.)
Well, in his column Kass now writes, “Markets top during times of enthusiasm. I believe that the markets are now overshooting to the upside and that the U.S. stock market has likely peaked for the year.”
Kass is well aware that his market top call has been met with cynicism to say the least. But he argues a series of factors have surfaced that just can’t be ignored. Following are just a few:
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- “Market participants have become increasingly complacent,” something that’s been evident by the sharp drop in the Vix.
- “Tops are born out of a rally in optimism,” and there’s certainly plenty of optimism in this market.
- "In a brief period of time we’ve moved from fear to greed”
- “The fear of being left out has replaced the fear of being in”
I’ve grown increasingly bearish over the past few months, Kass tells Fast Money. I’ve probably been early because I underestimated the appetite for risk. But I think we’re rapidly approaching an inflection point.”
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And from here Kass thinks the market is going lower. He doesn’t buy into the theory that money managers will chase performance and send the market higher through the end of the year.
Instead he says, “the number of new highs on the major indexes is contracting and we’ve lately had 4 failed rallies… the market is probably between 5 and 12% overvalued.”
What do you think? We want to know!
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Trader disclosure: On Oct. 23th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Najarian Owns (BX); Najarian Owns (GE) Calls; Najarian Owns (LAZ) & (LAZ) Puts; Najarian Owns (MYL) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (RIMM) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (WFT) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (YHOO) & Short (YHOO) Calls; Najarian Owns (STX) Calls; Najarian Owns (CLF) & Short (CLF) Calls; Finerman Owns (RIG), (TGT), (WMT), (WFC), (PDE); Finerman's Firm Owns (BAC) Preferred; Finerman Owns (BAC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Owns (WFC), (FLS), (MSFT), (PBR), (PDE), (RIG), (PLCE), (TJX); Finerman's Firm Is Short (IJR), (MDY), (SPY), (IWM), (USO), (UNG); Terranova Owns (HES), (JPM), (IBM); Seymour Owns (AAPL), (BAC), (EEM), (FXI), (SBUX)
For Jamie Baker:
JP Morgan Owns (UAUA)
JP Morgan Has An Investment Banking Relationship With (UAUA)
JP Morgan Has An Investment Banking Relationship With (CAL)
JP Morgan Has An Investment Banking Relationship With (AMR)
For Paul Sankey:
Deutsche Bank Owns (VLO)
(VLO) Is an Investment Banking Client of Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank Has Received Compensation From (VLO)
(VLO) Has Been A Client Of Deutsche Bank In Past Year
Deutsche Bank Owns (HES)
(HES) Is an Investment Banking Client of Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank Has Received Compensation From (HES)
(HES) Has Been A Client Of Deutsche Bank In Past Year
Deutsche Bank Owns (BP)
(BP) Is an Investment Banking Client of Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank Has Received Compensation From (BP)
(BP) Has Been A Client Of Deutsche Bank In Past Year
Deutsche Bank Owns (OXY)
(OXY) Is an Investment Banking Client of Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank Has Received Compensation From (OXY)
(OXY) Has Been A Client Of Deutsche Bank In Past Year
(SUN) Is an Investment Banking Client of Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank Has Received Compensation From (SUN)
Deutsche Bank Owns (PDE)
(PDE) Is an Investment Banking Client of Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank Owns (COP)
(COP) Is an Investment Banking Client of Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank Has Received Compensation From (COP)
(COP) Has Been A Client Of Deutsche Bank In Past Year
Deutsche Bank Owns (CVX)
Deutsche Bank Has Received Compensation From (CVX)
(CVX) Is an Investment Banking Client of Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank Owns (XOM)
Deutsche Bank Has Received Compensation From (XOM)
(XOM) Is an Investment Banking Client of Deutsche Bank
For Peter Schiff
Schiff Is Long Gold
Schiff is Short U.S Dollar
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