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Art Cashin: Markets Will Rally if Dollar 'Behaves'

Thursday, 29 Oct 2009 | 11:31 AM ET

Markets opened higher on Thursday after a report showed jobless claims dipped in the last week and the economy grew more than expected last quarter. Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS Financial Services, shared his insights.

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Getting the trader's edge from the NYSE floor, with Art Cashin, UBS Financial Services.

“I was somewhat impressed—I was looking for a slightly lower [GDP] number,” Cashin told CNBC.

“But to tell you the truth, it's so rear-view mirror. I was a little more concerned about the initial unemployment claims hanging up there still above 500,000—that’s half a million of our fellow workers who got pink slips this week.”

Cashin said continuing claims don’t adequately reflect the current economy.

“The initial claims are last week—so half a million people got pink slips last week, a week before a half a million and another before that,” he said. “That’s not going to help our Christmas at all.”

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Will there be a market rally? Cashin told investors the key factor will be the US dollar.

“All you have to have is for the dollar not to have any Halloween pranks,” he said.

“If it behaves, we’re very oversold—we’re enormously oversold on many historic levels. You’re due for a bounce, but it’s all about the dollar…Keep your eyes on the dollar and oil and you can see which way the market’s going to go.”

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CNBC Slideshows:

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Companies Reporting Earnings Today:

ExxonMobil

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P&G

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Motorola

  • Motorola Posts Quarterly Profit, Shares Jump

Royal Dutch Shell

  • Royal Dutch Shell's Net Falls 73%; Sees Slow Recovery

Colgate-Palmolive

  • Colgate-Palmolive Profit Rises 18%

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Disclosures:

No immediate information was available for Cashin or his firm.

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