Econorama

There are still a good number of earnings reports due in the coming week, but the economy is taking center stage once more. The third quarter GDP number was viewed as a good sign by some economists, but its sustainability was a source of debate among traders as stocks floundered Friday.

Arguably, the economy's performance in the fourth quarter and first quarter will determine the shape of the continuing recovery—be it U, V , W or something else. It is particularly debatable because some economists see growth decreasing in the fourth quarter, while others see it rising. This week's economic reports will provide the first good look at what could be expected for the fourth quarter. Another factor will be the consumer's willingness to spend on holiday shopping.

RBS chief economist Stephen Stanley sees fourth quarter growth at the same level as the 3.5 percent in third quarter. He said the major data to watch this week will be ISM manufacturing data on Monday, and the jobs report Friday. In September, both of the those data points were weaker than they were in August, and it is important to see them improve over August's numbers.

He expects job losses of 135,000, below the consensus of about 170,000. Non-farm payroll losses in August were at 201,000. "People are looking for improvement," he said. "The question really is what happens, how quickly will we get better. The real disagreement is what happens when we get to zero. Until we start to see positive payroll prints, I don't think people will be convinced."

Stanley said auto sales will also be important, when they are reported by auto makers Tuesday. "The noise we're hearing out of the auto makers in October is that things are better. There's some real improvement going on there. I don't think we should fool ourselves into thinking things are good because clearly they're not, but they're not the lows that we saw earlier in the year," he said.

Other data includes pending home sales and construction spending Monday; factory orders Tuesday; ADP employment and non-manufacturing ISM Wednesday; weekly jobless claims and productivity and costs Thursday, and wholesale trade and consumer credit Friday.

The Fed's meeting starts Tuesday and winds down Wednesday with a 2:15 p.m. statement. The European Central Bank and Bank of England also hold rate meetings Thursday.

Earnings Central

Some major companies are reporting in the week ahead, including several global auto makers, food giant Kraft

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On Monday, Ford, Clorox, Humana, Loews, CNA, Sysco and Dean Foods report in the morning. Anadarko, Chesapeake Energy and Vulcan Materials report after the bell that day.

Tuesday's reports include Archer-Daniels, Emerson Electric, Cognizant, AmerisourceBergen, Rockwell Collins, Rowan Cos, MasterCard, Marvel Entertainment, Medco, Polo Ralph Lauren, Tenet Healthcare, Viacom and Vornado. Kraft, Pitney Bowes and Hartford Financial report after Tuesday's close.

Time Warner, Total, Automatic Data, Baker Hughes, Becton Dickinson, Comcast, Devin Energy, El Paso, Foster Wheeler, Marsh McLennan, Molson Coors, Nissan and Transocean release earnings Wednesday morning. Cisco, Allstate, Murphy Oil, News Corp and Whole Foods report after the bell that day.

On Thursday, Toyota, Cigna, CVS Caremark, MGM Mirage, Sara Lee, Thomson Reuters, Unilever, Dynegy, Dr. Pepper Snapple, Teradata, Kimco Realty and Nasdaq OMX report ahead of the bell. After the bell reports are expected from Starbucks, Public Storage, NVIDIA, CBS, International Game Technology, Activision Blizzard, Crocs and Vera Sign. Fortress, Mirant, Edison International and Smith and Nephew release numbers Friday.

— Questions? Comments?