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Video Game Industry Braces for Ugly Earnings Season
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Special to CNBC.com
Near-term sales data isn’t expected to cheer up investors. After year-over-year drops of 29 percent and 16 percent in July and August, the video game industry eked out a 1 percent gain in September—but analysts are calling for a double-digit decline again for October.
November should be strong, with Activision’s “Modern Warfare 2” and Ubisoft’s “Assassin’s Creed 2” leading the pack—with that surge extending into December.
As for earnings this week, here’s what analysts are expecting:
Activision (reports Thurs. Nov 5)—Analysts are looking for the publisher to report results that are in-line with expectations. And despite the gloomy overall state of gaming, they do not expect Activision to change its full-year guidance, thanks to the excitement surrounding the upcoming “Modern Warfare 2”
THQ [THQI
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] (reports Wed. Nov 4)—The publisher had no major releases in the July-Sept. quarter, so catalog sales will drive the numbers. Generally, analysts are looking for THQ to come in slightly below consensus, with revenue likely in the $94-$95 million range and earnings between $(0.46) and $(0.49). No analyst sees upside for the stock this year, but many are hopeful for next year.
Ubisoft (reports Wed. Nov 4)—Broadpoint.AmTech’s Schachter expects revenue to be down 53 percent year-over-year and down 1 percent quarter-over-quarter for the French publisher. There’s optimism for the company’s “Assassin’s Creed 2,” but it also bet heavily on the gaming tie-in to “James Cameron’s Avatar,” which has not collected noticeable buzz to date.
Electronic Arts (reports Mon. Nov. 9)—Both Schachter and Lazard Capital Markets’ Colin Sebastian raise the red flag for possible further restructuring at the one-time leader of the gaming pack. It’s also possible the company could lower guidance for FY 2010, given disappointing sales of “Madden” and “Need for Speed”. (Consensus is currently $0.90 vs. the company’s guidance of $1.00.)
Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes
