Skip navigation

CNBC Guest Blog

RSS FEED

» Help

Current DateTime: 11:03:33 23 Nov 2009
LinksList Documentid: 30626172
powered by digg
Farrell: Digging Into Those Jobs Numbers
Published: Friday, 6 Nov 2009 | 10:30 AM ET
Text Size

Vince Farrell

Vince Farrell
CNBC Contributor

The unemployment rate jumped to 10.2%, the worst in years.

190,000 jobs were lost and it was hoped the number would be -180,000 or so. The U6 rate of unemployment, which counts part-timers who want full time work and also workers who have dropped out of the game and stopped looking, rose to a record 17.5%. September and August were revised and 91,000 fewer jobs were lost in those months. The three month average of jobs lost is 178,000 which is a big improvement from earlier in the year.

Unemployment
CNBC.com

The good news in the report is that temporary jobs rose by 34,000 and that is often an early warning signal of better days. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.3% but the average work week didn't budge and stayed at 33 hours.

The 10.2% is definitely an "ouch" since the labor force did not expand, and the 17.5% U6 is a "double ouch".

But temp jobs up and hourly earnings up are positive indicators, as is the three month moving average of jobs lost.

Looking at that three month number smooths out the emotion of the moment.

If we knew September's job loss was a negative 219,000 and not -263,000, and that August's was -154,000, not -201,000, our reactions would have been different.

My guess is for the very short term, oil goes down since the interpretation will be the economy is still struggling, and that gold goes up because the economy is still struggling, and that the market sells off because the economy is still struggling. _______________________________________

Vince Farrell
Vincent Farrell, Jr.
is chief investment officer at Soleil Securities Group and a regular contributor to CNBC. 


Add This share icon
Text Size
  • digg share
ADD COMMENTS
Remaining characters


Current DateTime: 05:29:33 23 Nov 2009
LinksList Documentid: 29778428

Current DateTime: 10:08:23 23 Nov 2009
LinksList Documentid: 29779196

Current DateTime: 08:24:12 23 Nov 2009
LinksList Documentid: 29779199

Current DateTime: 01:08:15 23 Nov 2009
LinksList Documentid: 29779198
  Data is a real-time snapshot  *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes
Global Business and Financial News, Stock Quotes, and Market Data and Analysis

© 2009 CNBC, Inc.  All Rights Reserved.
A Division of NBC Universal
Thomson ReutersThomson Reuters