Halftime Report: Wal-Mart Poised for Breakout
Stocks bounced around Friday as investors juggled a disappointing jobs report and some analyst upgrades.
The Labor Department said employers cut 190,000 jobs in October and the unemployment rate jumped to 10.2 percent, its highest level in more than 26 years. Economists had expected to see a job loss of 175,000 and unemployment rate of 9.9 percent.
Investors were also focused on some analyst upgrades in the market.
With all the volatility, where should investors be looking now?
Strategy session with Fast Money traders
Steve Grasso, CNBC market analyst and director of institutional sales at Stuart Frankel, says Friday's flat to higher trading is a victory for the market. The unemployment rate itself wasn't of as much consequence to the market as were the revision from the prior month and increase in temporary employment, he says.
Katie Stockton of MKM Partners is watching the 1015 to 1045 support level on the S&P 500. Beyond that is 1100, she says, adding that level won't be much of a hurdle going forward.
Gold was still on the rise Friday — mystifyingly so, says Zach Karabell of River Twice Research. I'm not that interested in gold as an indicator of anything beyond people's fears and anxieties, he says.
Volatility was being sucked out of the market due to lessening credit market problems. A good way to play that is to buy right your position, says Brian Stutland of Stutland Equities and Options Action Trade.
CHART OF THE DAY: WALMART
Retail names will take the spotlight next week as earnings season winds down and we hear from Macy's, Kohls, Nordstrom and, most importantly, Wal-Mart.
This is a sector Stockton has liked a lot this earnings season, especially Wal-Mart. The market laggard is now picking up momentum behind the scenes. The company is now above its 200-day moving average. The last time it crossed was January 2008, which gave way to a pretty significant rally.
A recent breakout from a triangle formation also is a very bullish indicator for Wal-Mart, Stockton says.
I hope it becomes a darling again, Grasso says, adding that the retail sector in general has been impressive, especially with such low estimates.
Brian Stutland agrees saying call buying is a good bet now. Investors have been hating on the consumer for a long time now, he says. It could be a good time to take the opposite side through buy calls or buy right your position.
TOPPING THE TAPE: GE AND AMAZON
General Electric shares jumped more than 5 percent early Friday after a brokerage upgrade, and helped lead the industrial sector higher.
The S&P industrials gained 1.1 percent.
On the Nasdaq, Amazon was the top gainer after Bernstein upgraded the online retailer to "outperform" from "market perform."
What's the trade?
Both Karabell and Grasso like GE now. We should be focusing on the strength of some of these names, Karabell says. There's true value in GE as an industrial, Grasso adds.
Stutland says the options pits are pretty optimistic on Amazon. I think you could still play it to the upside. He got long for some of his investors before the last earnings. At least there's a floor on this stock and I think it should hold here, he says.
NEXT TRADE: DOLLAR ETF
Deutsche Bank announced earlier this week it had run out of new shares of its bullish dollar ETF. The move could lead the ETF to trade substantially higher than its underlying asset.
What's the trade?
CNBC's Bob Pisani says once the premium is up and new shares are issued, the premium is going to collapse. It's the same thing that happened to the UNG over the summer.
So is there a play in the UUP and Dixie? In the near term, people are hedging themselves against some strength in the dollar. They're buying the November call, but are financing it by selling December, meaning it will cool off and the spread will decrease in the next month or so.
CALL THE CLOSE
Stutland: Sell it right now.
Stockton: I'm a buyer. Positive intra-day momentum.
Karabell: Friday before a big vote in Congress I'm doing nothing.
Grasso: Sell it.
______________________________________________________ Trader disclosure: On November 6th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Finerman's Firm Is Short (IJR), (IWM), (MDY), (SPY), (USO), (UNG),
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Adami Owns (AGU), (BTU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT),(NUE),
Adami Owned (INTC) On 10/15/09
Najarian Owns (AA) Call Spread, (BX) Calls, (GE) Calls, (JWN) Calls, (RIMM) Call Spread, (UUP) Calls, (YHOO), (YHOO) Puts
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Finerman Owns (BAC) Preferred, (BAC);
Finerman's Firm Is Short (KFT);
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Finerman's Firm Is Short (USO), Finerman's Firm Owns (WMT)
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Accounts Over Which Bernstein And/Or Affiliates Exercise Investment Discretion Own 1% Or More Of (AMZN)
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***CORTES HAS DISCLOSED FOR: WMT, XRT, SPY, MANPOWER
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***BRIAN STUTLAND HAS NOT PROVIDED DISCLOSURES
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Trader disclosure: On November 6th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders;
Finerman's Firm Is Short (IJR), (IWM), (MDY), (SPY), (USO), (UNG),