'Merry Thriftmas'

One big measure of consumer health will the holiday shopping season, and Stone said it may be better than Wall Street is forecasting. "Expectations were so low for the holidays, so I guess I feel pretty good about it because there's plenty of opportunity to beat it," he said.

October's chain store sales, reported by retailers in the past week portrayed a mixed picture with some high end retailers, like Nordstrom and Saks performing better than expected while some chains at the lower end missed.

Saut said he sees signs of life in the consumer but he thinks the consumer will be price sensitive this holiday season. "I see people out eating and doing things. I do think a theme of this Christmas is going to be 'Thrift-mas.' which is one of the reasons we own TJX and have been buying some Wal-mart," he said.

"The high end is coming back because the stock market is coming back," he said.

Earnings Central

Retailers will get a lot of attention in the coming week, as several major chains report third quarter earnings and will hopefully signal what they are seeing for the holiday season. Macy's reports Wednesday; Wal-mart, Kohl's, Nordstrom and Urban Outfitters report Thursday, and J.C. Penney and Abercrombie and Fitch report Friday. Another high profile retailer, Dollar General, the biggest discount chain, is expected to go public in the coming week in one of the biggest IPOs of the year. Its $750 million IPO is expected to price Thursday.

In other earnings news, Liberty Media Entertainment, Liberty Media Interactive, Allianz, Dish Network, American Water Works, Tesoro, CGI , Rockwell Automation, Windstream, and Nippon Telegraph report Monday morning. Electronic Arts, Fluor, MBIA, Priceline.com and McDermott International report after Monday's closing bell.

Tuesday's reports include Tyco, Vodafone and Atmos Energy. Applied Materials and Computer Sciences report after Wednesday's bell. Disney, Encana, Alliant Tech, AmBev, and URS report Thursday.

Dollar Dilemma

The momentum of the 'risk trade' has been one of the big factors impacting the stock market in recent months, so stock traders pay close attention to the dollar's every move. The risk trade has thrived as the Fed's low interest rate policy weakens the dollar. As the dollar weakens, investors pour money into risk assets, like stocks and commodities.

Brian Dolan of Forex.com said currency traders will be focused on the G-20 gathering of finance ministers in St. Andrews, Scotland this weekend, the APEC meeting in Asia later in the week and the comments from members of the Fed in between. President Barack Obama and Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner both visit Japan this week, ahead of the Asian Pacific Economic Cooperative meeting in Singapore next weekend.

"You also have the Eurozone finance ministers meeting Monday and Tuesday," said Dolan.

He said the dollar could strengthen in the coming week, which could mean stocks sell off. "There's still a massive short dollar position. You're going to get some verbal support for the dollar and verbal concerns about the euro's strength," Dolan said.

"I'm looking at a multi week top forming in the risk assets and a bottom forming in the dollar, and this week a correction in that," said Dolan.

Bonds

For the Treasury market, the focus is on auctions in the coming week. On Monday, $40 billion in 3-year notes will be auctioned. Tuesday will see $25 billion in 10-years, and $16 billion in 30-years are auctioned Thursday. The bond market is closed for Veteran's Day Wednesday. the 10-year lost 31/32 points in the past week, to 100-31/32, raising it yield to 3.507 percent. The 2-year gained slightly though, and its yield slipped to 0.857 percent.

"The duration has sold off 10s and 30s," said CRT strategist David Ader on Friday. "The short front end has traded better. We have 10 and 30 auctions next week. We have a Fed that provided some relief."

Ader said besides the auctions, the Fed speakers on Tuesday will be interesting. "We've got Yellen, who is an extreme dove; Fisher, who is an extreme hawk and Lockhart who is out in the middle," he said. Fed Gov. Daniel Tarullo also speaks on financial regulation Monday in New York and on resolution authority on Tuesday.

On Tuesday, San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen; Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, and Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher all speak on the economy. The Boston Fed's Eric Rosengren speaks in London that day.

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks on asset bubbles in Paris, while New York Fed President William Dudley speaks in Princeton on Friday.

Econorama

Weekly jobless claims are reported Thursday before the bell, and the federal budget is issued in the afternoon that day. International trade and import prices are reported Friday, as is consumer sentiment for November. The NFIB small business survey is released on Tuesday.

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