PREVIEW-Greek Q3 GDP growth seen at -1.4% y/y

ATHENS, Nov 10 (Reuters) - Greece's economy likely contracted 1.4 percent year-on-year in the third quarter after a 0.3 percent slump in the second quarter, according to the median forecast of five economists surveyed by Reuters. Greece's 250 billion euro economy, about 2.5 percent of the euro zone, is feeling the impact of the global downturn after years of 4 percent growth. Manufacturing and construction are contracting, with tourism also looking weaker this year. "Economic activity, which entered into negative terrain in Q2, is expected to shrink further in Q3, by about 1.8 percent year-on-year, held back by a broad-based decline in domestic demand and particularly in private gross fixed capital formation," said economist Nikos Magginas at National Bank. He said that looser monetary conditions and a significant fiscal impulse, reflected by the widening of the budget deficit to 12.7 percent of GDP, provided only partial defense. Greek GDP grew 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter in the three moths to June. A negative print in the third quarter, coupled with a downward revision of the previous quarter to a negative number, will mean Greece's economy has officially entered recession -- its first since 1993. In its latest forecasts, the EU Commission projects Greece's economy will shrink 1.1 percent this year, with the government expecting a decline of 1.5 percent. The IMF is forecasting a 0.8 percent contraction this year. For the year as a whole, the economists polled expect Greek GDP to contract 0.8 percent. Greece's statistics service (NSS) will release third quarter GDP flash data on Friday, Nov 13. ****************************************************** 2009 GDP Forecasts --------------------------------------------------- Q3 y/y q/q Q4 y/y q/q 2009 y/y National Bank -1.8 -1.3 -2.3 -0.1 -1.2 ING -1.4 -0.8 -1.7 0.0 -0.8 Piraeus Bank -0.7 0.0 -1.0 0.0 -0.4 Marfin Popular -0.8 4.7 -1.4 -4.1 -0.7 IHS Global -1.9 -1.2 -1.9 0.3 -1.0 ---------------------------------------------------- Average -1.3 0.3 -1.7 -0.8 -0.8 Median -1.4 -0.8 -1.7 0.0 -0.8 ---------------------------------------------------- (Additional reporting by Tatiana Fragou) (Reporting by George Georgiopoulos; Editing by Andy Bruce) Keywords: GREECE GDP/PREVIEW ([e-mail]; [phone]; Reuters Messaging:[e-mail]) COPYRIGHT Copyright Thomson Reuters 2009. All rights reserved.

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