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EMERGING MARKETS-Shares rise for sixth day, currencies up
By: AFX | 11 Nov 2009 | 07:19 AM ET
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By Sujata Rao and Sebastian Tong LONDON, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Emerging stocks rose for the sixth straight session on Wednesday, up one percent after strong Chinese data while the U.S. dollar's slump to new 15-month lows further burnished the allure of carry trades. As cash kept flowing into emerging markets, Russia's central bank allowed its rouble to set fresh 2009 highs against its currency basket while Taiwan's dollar shrugged off a move to bar foreigners from some cash deposits to rise to new three-week highs versus the weak greenback. Positive newsflow on the global economy continued in the shape of data showing China's factory output rising to 19-month highs. This puts China on track for 8 percent growth this year and reinforces hopes for the global economic recovery. And Indian data showed car sales in October rose at the fastest clip in over two years, while truck sales -- a key barometer of industrial activity -- jumped 52 percent, the strongest expansion since April 2007. "Asia is the one supportive element out there with China and India doing well. The (outlook for) G7 economies has been mixed really. GDP data is not bad but the underlying quality of the figures suggests the recovery is still fragile," said Zsolt Papp, chief economist emerging Europe at KBC. On Tuesday, top Federal Reserve officials warned that high unemployment and wary consumers are likely to keep the incipient U.S. economic recovery weak and patchy. "There are people who missed the (markets) rally and still trying to get in so we may see slightly higher volatility until year end across asset classes. The general trend should be slightly positive unless we get news that the recovery is not gonna happen," Papp said. The key MSCI emerging equities index was up 1.1 percent by 1145 GMT, bringing gains this week to almost 4 percent while emerging sovereign debt spreads were one basis point tighter to trade at 302 bps over U.S. Treasuries. Romanian shares jumped 2 percent to hit seven-week peaks while Russian and South African shares hovered at two-week highs Hungarian and Israeli shares rose one percent to two-week highs CURRENCIES ADVANCE Most emerging currencies firmed as bets against the U.S. dollar intensified following comments by the Dallas Fed president that the greenback's depreciation had been "orderly". In Asia, the Taiwan dollar posted its highest finish since Oct. 20, despite the central bank's move to bar foreigners from time deposits in an effort to fend off appreciation pressures on the currency. About $15 billion in overseas cash is parked in such deposits, positioned for rate rises. "At face value, this only obstructs one narrow category of capital inflow and may have a limited impact - foreigners can still freely invest in the equity market, for example," HSBC told clients in a note. "However, this opens the door towards further measures if the authorities continue to find discomfort with inflows and appreciation pressure...we should (also) consider the potential for similar moves elsewhere in the region," the bank added. But the Taiwan dollar rose further on Monday thanks to $340 million in flows into local stocks and news on Chinese data. Non-deliverable forwards are pricing further appreciation. In the EMEA space, the South African rand was rangebound after firming to a new three-week high against the weak dollar while Russia's rouble drifted to a fresh 2009 high against its dollar-euro basket. The currency has risen steadily in recent weeks as oil prices have stayed near $80 a barrel, sparking off Tuesday's warning from a senior bank official that rouble strength was not a one-way bet. However, the central bank on Wednesday allowed the rouble to strengthen further, letting it rise to an 11-month peak versus the dollar. "We are seeing a bit of currency strength across the region which is based more on the weaker dollar than anything else. That is going to be the theme for the next few days -- what the dollar is doing will be key," said KBC's Papp. The Czech crown firmed to a near one-week high versus the euro while the Hungarian forint was at its strongest against the single currency in two weeks. The Polish zloty was up one percent to a six-week high versus the euro. (Reporting by Sujata Rao and Sebastian Tong; Editing by Andy Bruce) Keywords: MARKETS EMERGING Emerging Markets Prices from Reuters Equities Latest Net Chg % Chg % Chg on year Morgan Stanley Emrg Mkt Indx 973.66 +10.57 +1.10 +71.71 Czech Rep 1161.40 +4.50 +0.39 +35.33 Poland 2373.30 +14.46 +0.61 +32.61 Hungary 21264.98 +235.91 +1.12 +73.71 Israel 1055.22 +9.74 +0.93 +61.14 Romania 4748.97 +105.08 +2.26 +63.70 Russia 1447.26 +10.29 +0.72 +129.04 South Africa 24061.59 +307.38 +1.29 +23.75 Turkey 48987.29 +852.20 +1.77 +82.35 China 3175.19 -3.42 -0.11 +74.38 India 16849.60 +409.04 +2.49 +74.66 Currencies Latest Prev Local Local close currency currency % change % change in 2009 Czech Rep 25.42 25.48 +0.25 +5.26 Poland 4.14 4.18 +0.99 -0.49 Hungary 269.30 271.26 +0.73 -2.14 Romania 4.29 4.30 +0.10 -6.45 Russia 35.11 35.14 +0.08 -0.90 South Africa 7.35 7.34 -0.10 +28.50 Kenya 74.30 74.30 +0.00 +5.11 Israel 3.75 3.76 +0.27 +0.75 Turkey 1.47 1.48 +0.26 +4.68 Brazil 1.70 1.71 +0.56 +35.98 Mexico 13.17 13.21 +0.27 +3.67 Debt Index Strip Spd Chg %Rtn Index Sov'gn Debt EMBI+ 302 -1 -0.04 491.22 All data taken from Reuters at 1147 GMT. Currency percent change calculated from the daily U.S. close at 2130 GMT. For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets: All emerging market news Local market reports Central and eastern Europe Turkey South Africa Spot FX rates Eastern Europe spot FX Middle East spot FX Asia spot FX Latin America spot FX Other news and reports World central bank news Economic Data Guide Official rates Emerging Diary Top events Diaries Diaries Index (sebastian.tong@thomsonreuters.com; +44 20 7542 8561; Reuters Messaging: sebastian.tong.reuters.com@reuters.net) COPYRIGHT Copyright Thomson Reuters 2009. All rights reserved.

The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.

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