ANALYSIS-Congress wins may prove hollow for Argentine leader

By Vivianne Rodrigues BUENOS AIRES, Nov 12 (Reuters) - Argentina's president has pushed several key bills through Congress since suffering a sharp defeat in June mid-term elections, but the victories may do little to boost her popularity among voters. Senators approved President Cristina Fernandez's 2010 budget on Thursday, while lawmakers in the lower house passed a two-year extension of the so-called superpowers, which give the executive special budgetary discretion. The Senate is also expected to approve in coming days the government's plans to mop up $20 billion in defaulted bonds. This week's congressional victories follow approval last month of a controversial reform of broadcasting regulations, and suggest that Fernandez and her husband and predecessor ex-President Nestor Kirchner, are still managing to gather political support after June's stinging election defeat. Sergio Berensztein, a political analyst in Buenos Aires, said the Kirchners "came back after the June elections with some three or four extraordinary counterattacks." He cited the president's broadcast reform bill, which pitted the government against Argentina's top media groups. However, he said the scope of the victory is limited. The Kirchners "believe they have regained control over (the political) scenario but it's an illusion, because their relationship with society is broken," Berensztein said at a Reuters Economic Forum event in Buenos Aires. Fernandez' popularity is sagging and her approval ratings have fallen below 30 percent as the economy slows. Unrest has also increased recently, with growing protests and standoffs with subway workers, students and the unemployed. DISCONTENT The growing discontent may also weigh on Nestor Kirchner, who is seen as contender for the 2011 presidential elections. Many Argentines still credit Kirchner with bringing Argentina back to growth and stability after the economic crisis of 2001/2002, but he was defeated in a congressional race in Argentina's most populous province, Buenos Aires. "Nestor has managed to rebuild some political consensus since the defeat in June but he's yet to regain voter support," said Pascual Albanese, a political analyst in Buenos Aires. "Presidential elections are still far off, but if they were to take place today he'd most likely lose against any opposition candidate," he added. Other commentators note that Fernandez had to rush the latest bills through Congress before the new lawmakers are seated in December and that she will have a much tougher time in approving new legislation next year. "This current Congress no longer represents the majority. In this sense, her latest victories aren't real," said Jorge Raventos, a political analyst in Buenos Aires. "As soon as the new Congress is seated next month, opposition lawmakers will start revising all the laws and other legislation that were approved in a rush in the past couple of months." BUDGET BILL The result of the mid-term vote raised doubts over Fernandez's ambitious economic agenda. Argentines complain about high inflation and rising crime, and many voters turned against the Kirchners due to their handling of a messy row with farmers over soy export taxes. But the budget bill -- which scaled back the official outlook for 2009 growth to just 0.5 percent from a forecast of 4 percent and projected next years' growth at 2.5 percent -- was passed with 42 votes for and 25 against. The lower house authorized the extension of the so-called superpowers until 2011 on a vote of 131 to 52. Pro-government lawmakers highlighted the improvement in local financial markets, rejecting criticism over the poorer economic outlook. "(Argentine) bonds are still rising, foreign reserves are still rising, the country's risk has been falling and capital inflows should continue," Miguel Angel Pichetto, who heads the ruling party bloc in the senate, told state news agency Telam. Fernandez has also asked Congress to overturn the "Ley Cerrojo," or Bolt Law, which effectively sealed a 2005 debt deal from being reopened. The overturning of the law will give a second chance to investors who did not agree to the unfavorable conditions of the swap four years ago. (Editing by Fiona Ortiz and Anthony Boadle) Keywords: ARGENTINA CONGRESS/ ([e-mail]; [phone]; Reuters Messaging: [e-mail]) COPYRIGHT Copyright Thomson Reuters 2009. All rights reserved.

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